Yes it can — our positive Lisbon result can restore hope to the nation

PRIOR to the Lisbon referendum vote, the event was billed as a defining moment in the country’s development. This remains true. Often when things are at their worst, it brings out the best in people.

Last week was a turning point in coping with our overwhelming problems. The 20% swing in public opinion, relative to the previous outcome, represents a seismic shift. We need to benchmark what has changed and why. The Yes result can restore hope to the nation. Our position in Europe is one of the “fundamentals” of our economy. We have sent out positive messages to the rest of the EU and internationally. We cannot live off the consumption of our own 4 million people. Our prosperity rests on selling goods and services abroad competitively. Our mature decision to cut through the fog of waffle makes Ireland a better place to do business. EU commission boss Jose Manuel Barroso’s “Thank you Ireland” represents a tangible deposit in Europe’s political bank. We will need to cash this credit in the future.

Voters are capable of moving on from the appropriate frenzy of anger and blame for our current mess. There were no bribes or sweeteners to vote yes. We will remain net contributors to the EU. An enlarged Europe marginally dilutes every member state. In making Europe more coherent and streamlined there have to be new structures. That was the essence of the treaty, rather than a radical move towards a federal Europe. Voting Yes meant facing up to our responsibilities instead of an orgy of negativity and recrimination.

The Yes campaign provides some tenuous optimism about our party politics. The adversarial bickering between party leaders was set aside. Putting the country first is required to confront our public finance crisis. After a decade of Fianna Fáil governments, it would be utterly politically naive to expect FG and Labour to underwrite any FF administration. The enormity of our fiscal hole has deepened with last week’s exchequer figures. The net weekly state deficit is now €500m. We will borrow €26bn to plug that gap this year. The enormity of this economic correction could wipe out any government.

The most probable political scenario rolls out as follows: the December budget proves to be so odious, that an individual item causes a Dáil vote and government defeat; the subsequent general election produces a FG/Labour coalition government with a reasonable majority. Within two years of this administration, attempts to reduce expenditure will result in deep unpopularity and a further election. At some point in the cycle the main political parties are going to have to collectively confront various vested interest groups and govern. Otherwise, different governments will be played off against each other. Public sector reform won’t happen if it is a political football.

The No campaign side comprised various components of protest politics. The extremes of left and right provided niches of objections. Cóir, Libertas, People Before Profit and the Socialist Party have had their time in the sun. Cóir’s poster about the minimum wage was dishonest. Their final poster showing an elderly person and foetus was disgusting. The inference was that a Yes vote meant euthanasia and abortion. No matter how much contempt you have for our mainstream politicians, please preserve us from hard-core nutters.

Sinn Féin are real losers in this campaign. They maintain they are pro-European. History shows otherwise. In every referendum since our accession to the EC in 1973 they have advocated a negative stance. This stems from their historical narrow nationalist world view. They cannot resist the media air time of being the only Dáil party against the proposition. This reflects an unwillingness to change. FF’s enduring success is its ability to always adapt. Sinn Féin still hasn’t faced their dilemma in the Republic. The Northern-based leadership, now in Government there does not connect with the southern electorate. They must redefine and crystallise their policies and identity. Slogan politics is too glib to succeed.

What caused the significant Yes surge in the last week? The most decisive contributor to the debate was Michael O’Leary. The blunt Ryanair full-page adverts screamed economic and political reality. O’Leary confronted Declan Ganley head on. O’Leary is equally respected and reviled. But he pays his taxes here, we know the source of his wealth and he is successful. In contrast, we don’t know Ganley’s business interests. His real agenda has never been exposed. Libertas appears as an Irish version of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). This is a right-wing Eurosceptic voice. Conventional politicians couldn’t cope with Ganley’s aggression. He always played the man, not the ball. Because O’Leary plays the same he was a genuine match for him.

One of the best features of this campaign was the involvement of civic groups. At last, there is the realisation that politics is too important to be left merely to politicians. The active politicisation of the business community was instrumental in the result. Voters understand economic recovery can only stem from business investment, commercial success and subsequent job creation. Failed bankers, developers and politicians are a busted flush. We need Intel, Pfizer and Hewlitt Packard to remain committed to our economy. Their proactive political role was heard and understood.

This is not to underestimate or assume the enduring value of our own Eurocratic advocates. Brigid Laffan and Pat Cox were equally informative in both campaigns. The difference this time was, their information wasn’t drowned out by scare tactics.

FULL credit must also go to Foreign Affairs Minister Micheál Martin. His self confident consistent calm approach worked. He has done himself a lot of good, especially within FF. If and when Cowen departs the leadership, any time soon, it will be a straight contest between Martin and Brian Lenihan. It was, however, yet another black mark for our hapless Tánaiste who couldn’t convince the people of Donegal that this wasn’t about abortion.

The overriding truth of this entire campaign was the upside of voting Yes was relatively modest to the disastrous impact of a No vote. The prospects of investor confidence collapsing would have incurred lasting long-term damage. There was no Plan C in the event of failure. Our relationship with the EU would be undermined and isolation increased. Full credit must go to Frank Clarke and the Referendum Commission for their clarity of communication and courage. This makes the holding of other referenda such as children’s rights more viable. The attempt by Libertas and others to make the vote a referendum on Cowen had some unquantifiable impact. The recession was a double-edged sword. There is a hard core of anti-EU sentiment. All in all, enough discernment of our best national interests won through.

I am not sentimental, but I was proud to be Irish on Saturday. We have to face up to our enormous difficulties. The EU does not owe us a living. I believe we made the right choice to fulfil our destiny by availing of the opportunity the EU provides for markets, jobs and governance. The whole entity is worth more than the sum of the parts.