Lock up our economists until they agree a white smoke solution

IT’S time that all the leading economists in Ireland were locked up.

Not in jail, I hasten to add. But somewhere comfortable — actually Dublin Castle would be perfect.

A tourist and conference venue now, the historic castle has served its time as a prison during national emergencies before.

What economist worth his salt would object to being lodged in the rooms where people like James Connolly, for instance, spent the night before his execution?

So my proposal is that all our leading economists should be rounded up, installed in the castle, each given a nice room and offered decent catering facilities.

In return, they would agree to spend all day every day in conference with one another on the understanding they could come out when — and only when — they had come up with an agreed solution to the crisis we face.

I’m going to suggest we call it the conclave in the castle because I’m proposing we model the exercise on a papal conclave.

When it is time to elect a new pope, the cardinals of the Catholic Church go into conclave in the Sistine Chapel.

Before they go in, they take an oath that they will maintain absolute secrecy about the voting and discussions. The penalty for disclosing anything about the conclave that must be kept secret is automatic excommunication.

The cardinals all take seats around the wall of the Sistine Chapel. They vote on the afternoon of the first day, then twice each morning and twice each afternoon.

If they have not elected someone within the first three votes, then they may devote up to a day to prayer and discussion before resuming. They may do the same every seven unsuccessful votes after that.

In the old days they used to sit on thrones by day, but they slept in fold-up cots in the corridors of the Sistine Chapel by night. Nowadays they don’t have thrones but their overnight accommodation is more comfortable.

But they’re not permitted any contact with the outside world: no mobile phones, no newspapers or television, no messages or letters or signals to observers.

In the world we live in now, the whole place is electronically swept regularly for listening devices.

The cardinals can take a walk in the Vatican Gardens, but if they meet anyone other than a fellow cardinal there must be no conversation of any kind.

At the end of each day’s voting, tradition has it, straw is burned in a stove connected to a small chimney visible to the outside world. If the voting hasn’t produced a result, black smoke is seen coming from the chimney, and when it finally belches out white smoke the world knows it has a new pope.

That system has stood the test of time over many centuries for the Catholic Church. So I’m proposing we apply the same procedure to the princes of the economics profession in Ireland. We don’t need a pope, but we need some answers. Let’s have a Conclave of Economists. While I suppose (given that this is a democracy, unlike the church) they would have to volunteer, surely all of them would be willing to make the sacrifice in the national interest.

Especially since each and every one of them is convinced he has the right answer (I’ve just realised another thing they have in common with the cardinals — it seems economics is an entirely male profession. I wonder is that one of the reasons why they’re so prone to disagreement with each other?).

Once they had agreed to be locked away in the castle, the first thing that would have to cleared up is the question of fees. There’s a fairly simple answer to that issue — the fee is patriotism. And if that won’t work, then they must be told they will have to work for the satisfaction of being able to tell the rest of us what’s good for us.

Like any good collection of princes and prima donnas, they would have to agree to some ground rules.

We need to be sure that while they’re in conclave, they’re not influenced by either the needs of clients or the demands of TV or radio producers. So mobile phones will have to handed up and there’ll be no access to Google (or Facebook) while the conclave is going on.

And when they agree on a course of action, they will all have to take a solemn oath that none of them will dissent afterwards, or ever again say “I told you so”. Indeed it would be no harm if, before they went in, each of the princes of the profession was given a crash course in humility and reminded how often they had all got it wrong in the past.

Once the conclave is under way, the princes will be set only one task. In this conclave, however, they will have to approach the task individually in the first instance, and then collectively.

Each will have to draw up a list of the 10 steps necessary to deal with the economic crisis, and to be completely specific.

Discussion will begin once each list has been presented and will continue until the princes have agreed, by at least a two-thirds majority, on an agreed and common list. The collective list is the one we need to see and once it has been developed, each of the individual lists will be put into a shredder that has been ecumenically blessed.

When a new pope is elected in Rome, the dean of the College of Cardinals steps onto the main balcony of the Vatican and announces “Habemus Papam (We have a Pope).

Once we see white smoke from Dublin Castle at the end of our conclave, we need a similar ritual.

WE are going to have to bring Charlie Bird back from the USA because it’s impossible to imagine anyone else being able to declare “Habemus Responsum (We have an Answer).”

It might not be the solution to all our problems, of course — there is still the minor issue of political leadership to be dealt with.

But it would put us out of our misery in some ways — especially the misery of being beaten over the head every time you turn on the radio or TV, or every time you open a newspaper, by economists who all know what’s best — but who don’t seem to be able to agree about the time of day.

Is it more tax or less tax we need?

More public spending or less?

Should capital projects be postponed or accelerated? Property taxes or not? Bad banks or good banks? More or less borrowing? The IMF or not? Loan deferrals or loan foreclosures?

These are only some of the issues about which they disagree, these princes of the profession.

And while they disagree, the nation is in danger of drowning. It’s time the economists stopped telling the rest of us to get our act together.

The greatest national service they could do is to stop arguing and start searching for common solutions themselves. And if locking them all up for a week or so would help, let’s do it.