There’s one key area where Brian should follow Bertie’s example

DURING the extended interregnum between Bertie Ahern’s resignation and the election of the new Taoiseach, one question went largely unanswered: what does Brian Cowen believe?

We were reminded again and again of his deep Fianna Fáil roots, his patriotism and his extensive experience, but what drives him — apart from the desire to wield power and to serve — was anyone’s guess.

His two speeches of last Wednesday — one accepting the premiership, the other nominating his ministers — have filled many of the gaps in our knowledge, but not all of them.

Rightly, attention has focused on Cowen’s interesting reflections on the “rising tide of individualism within Irish society” and the “risks” this poses to “a wider community interest”.

One sentence, in particular, had a distinctly Lemassian tone: “The ultimate test of our progress will be the extent to which we can mobilise all of the people to think and behave in a manner that puts the interests of society as a whole ahead of our own private interests.”

Cowen’s reference to — and praise for — the recent book, Forty Shades of Green by ex-Workers’ Party and Democratic Left trade unionist and erstwhile MEP Des Geraghty, was certainly intriguing. There was a time when Fianna Fáil regarded such people as dangerous apostates. Not any more, it seems.

Nevertheless, did Cowen say anything on the domestic agenda that could not have been uttered by a Christian Democrat like Angela Merkel? Wasn’t there a passing resemblance between Cowen’s “engine of community” and, say, British Conservative leader David Cameron’s notion of “social responsibility”?

If the election of Brian Cowen marks a leftward shift, it is merely a reflection of a general trend among European centre-right politicians to make capitalism appear more compassionate, even cuddly. Turning the rhetoric into concrete policy proposals and legislation will prove a daunting task.

Inevitably, Cowen has made the “very resilient” economy his most urgent priority. Brian Lenihan, long overlooked by Bertie Ahern, will be required to make painful cuts, but there is no wiser person in the cabinet team. ‘Greenery’, and climate change in particular, received several mentions from Cowen as well, reflecting the current vogue — and the realpolitik of the current coalition.

No speech or couple of speeches can be expected to touch all the bases. Taken together, however, the Taoiseach made a good start, pressing most of the right buttons. If there was a certain underlying austerity to the programme — some might call it, unfairly, a lack of ambition — that is entirely appropriate to the times. Some will say Cowen’s extensive use of Irish is a backward glance, but he would vigorously contest such suggestions.

A more serious weakness was Cowen’s ordering of priorities on the international agenda. Few, 10 years on from Good Friday, would quibble with sentiments about having “the deepest friendship” and “fruitful engagement” with Britain. The intention is clearly to consolidate the excellent British-Irish partnership. No problems there.

It is a pity though that while Cowen says he has “thought a great deal about Ireland’s place in the world today”, he only spoke of relations with the United States in economic terms whereas the EU was lauded up and down.

Here is what he said on transatlantic matters: “Our economic success on this island owes much to the strength and depth of our relationship with the United States, through the very many investors who have found here a successful partner for investment and through the scale of the trading relationship between the two economies.”

That’s it; nothing about shared values, none of the acceptance of American leadership in the world that underscored Bertie Ahern’s triumphant recent speech to the US Congress.

Naturally enough, Cowen has his eye on the forthcoming Lisbon treaty referendum. A defeat on June 12 would be deeply wounding for the new Taoiseach, even if some of the apocalyptic warnings about the consequences of a no vote are overblown. True friends are allowed to disagree.

Whatever the result of the referendum, European engagement will remain vital to Ireland. At the same time, America is more than just a “partner for investment”. Might the US embassy have detected a subtle strategic — not merely economic — shift from Boston to Berlin in the new Taoiseach’s attitude?

There has been much recent speculation as to how long America will remain the “hyperpower” and Cowen is far from alone if he believes Europe will lead a renewed drive for global leadership. Many further argue that China’s remarkable recent development and its projected growth into the future will soon put it in a position to challenge American hegemony as well. Indeed, the Taoiseach made an oblique reference to “significant realignments in the geopolitical order”.

But Europe’s “potency”, as Cowen calls it, will probably be sapped in coming decades while Beijing is hampered as well.

The EU’s major weakness is one of demographics. The Republic’s population might have swelled by a million in the past generation, but Europe will be the only continent with fewer inhabitants in 2050 than it has today. Population isn’t everything but, by and large, the more citizens you have, the larger your economic potential, and the more power you can project.

Europe’s transformative effects cannot be lightly dismissed — enlargement has been a tremendous success — but so-called ‘soft power’ has often proved to be inadequate in the face of aggression. Appeals and sanctions did not stop the Rwandan genocide. Only hard power brought some kind of normality to the Balkans.

A SUCCESSFUL EU must be prepared to deploy soft and hard power to promote democracy and tackle conflict beyond its borders, but it doesn’t do so very successfully. Just look how long it took to put together the Irish-led force in Chad. So long as Europe is unwilling to spend on hard power — 1.8% of GDP compared to 4.1% for the US — it will be unable to promote its interests in much of the world.

China, conversely, has an exponentially increasing population and is investing heavily in its armed forces. The recent protests during the Olympic torch relay, however, highlighted China’s severe inability to sell itself on the world stage. It is still the US that has the monopoly on soft power – films, television, fashion, food, language, literature and, most significantly, values. China has little exportable cultural capital in these areas.

As for Russia, it seems the world’s fastest declining population has only the power of the pipeline left. Thus, China, Russia and the EU are all deficient. Only America has the power to persuade and the power to enforce. America’s international leadership has coincided with an era of unprecedented global prosperity and peace between the world’s powers. For Ireland, it’s not EU or US — it’s both. Brian Cowen might consider following Bertie Ahern’s example and acknowledge as much in the weeks and months to come.