Paul Hosford: Fianna Fáil leadership dilemma — is Jim O’Callaghan waiting too long to make his move?

Jim O’Callaghan’s loyalty to Micheál Martin, and his caution on timing, now shape Fianna Fáil’s unanswered leadership question

Jim O’Callaghan could have made his biggest move towards party leadership by backing MEP Billy Kelleher for the presidential nomination. Picture: Leah Farrell RollingNews.ie

Last week, the anniversary of an important date in Irish political history passed with little fanfare.

Granted, eight-year anniversaries are rarely feted and you have to be a political nerd to really remember the toppling of a tánaiste, but indulge this nerd.

In late 2017, Frances Fitzgerald left her post as justice minister after a protracted saga regarding her emails, and what and when she had or had not known regarding an alleged smear campaign against Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe.

Ms Fitzgerald would later be cleared by the Collins report, which found she and officials of the department “acted at all times in good faith and believed that they were acting reasonably in the manner in which they conducted searches for documentation”, while the Charleton report would find that she had “selflessly” decided to resign in the national interest.

A central character in that affair was the Fianna Fáil spokesperson for Justice at the time, current justice minister Jim O’Callaghan, who in 2022 didn’t regret things. Speaking to the Irish Examiner’s podcast Let Me Tell You , Mr O’Callaghan said that he and his party “got no pleasure” out of Ms Fitzgerald’s resignation, saying that she is a “decent woman” who resigned in the national interest.

However, the Dublin Bay South TD said: “If you’re asking me in light of the tribunal report do I regret the policy adopted by Fianna Fáil — I don’t — it was a political imperative at the time and politics is a tough, hard business.

There are times that you’re forced to make a decision, regardless of the consequences.

“There’s a difference between the political and legal. [Ms Fitzgerald’s resignation] was necessary, that’s the reality of it.”

Mr O’Callaghan has long defended his party’s decision to call for Ms Fitzgerald’s resignation and that the incident did not affect his relationship with party leader Micheál Martin, though their relationship was affected by Mr Martin’s decision to overlook Mr O’Callaghan for a Cabinet position in 2020 and the Dubliner’s subsequent rejection of a junior ministry.

At the time, he said: “At a time when many of our party’s senior members will be pre-occupied with their ministerial duties, I want to devote more time to strengthening our great party by making it a more attractive option for young voters.

I also believe Fianna Fáil needs strong voices outside government who can ensure that our party’s identity can be protected during the term of this coalition government.

At the time, Mr O’Callaghan pledged to travel around the country speaking to the grassroots members in what was seen as a pitch for the leadership, though his ambitions would appear to recede during the last Dáil as Mr Martin’s position post-coalition with Fine Gael appeared under less threat and the jitters of 2020 were replaced with a steady hand and Fianna Fáil got on with the work of government.

Following the election of last year, when Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party in the Dáil amid a wave of backlashes against government parties across Europe, Mr Martin’s pledge that he would be Fianna Fáil leader at the next election looked possible, if not probable.

Fast forward to August of this year and the party’s internal contest to contest the presidential election. While party leadership said that its slow-walking of the process was out of an abundance of caution, Ireland South MEP Billy Kelleher calls for things to be sped up and after a week of fielding calls, finds himself in the race. But Fianna Fáil leadership has been working behind the scenes on putting former Dublin GAA boss Jim Gavin in place and a party contest is now required.

Asked last month if he believed Taoiseach Micheál Martin would lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election, and if Mr O’Callaghan wanted to be his party’s leader, Mr O’Callaghan’s support for his party leader came with no caveats. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA

At this point, some posited, Mr O’Callaghan could have made his biggest move towards the party leadership by backing Mr Kelleher, a de facto challenge to Mr Martin’s authority. But Mr O’Callaghan, just seven months installed as justice minister, opted to support his fellow Dubliner.

“He believes FF is lucky to have two such outstanding people seeking its nomination,” a spokesperson said after Mr O’Callaghan had spoken to both Mr Martin and Mr Gavin in September.

“It has been a difficult call for him because both would be excellent in the office of Uachtarán na hÉireann.

“He has decided to support Jim as he believes he would be a uniquely qualified candidate.”

When the wheels came off the Gavin campaign in early October, Mr O’Callaghan could have moved, could have agitated or could have made his displeasure known. He did say at a post-Budget briefing the same week that he would like to lead Fianna Fáil, just not yet.

“Yeah I would have thought so at some stage in the future, it’s not an immediate concern for me,” he said.

I would have thought every member of the parliamentary party has an aspiration.

And for all the positioning of Mr O’Callaghan as the challenger apparent, he has been very complimentary of the man he is supposed to be challenging.

In that same podcast interview he confirmed that he was pressed to sign a motion of no confidence in Mr Martin in 2021 but he “wasn’t going to sign it” at the time.

He said that Fianna Fáil’s issues “go beyond one person” and said that the party had to work out why it is not getting support from people who identify with its politics.

He added that he would, “like any member of the party”, be “honoured” to be the leader of Fianna Fáil.

But his praise of Mr Martin recently was more effusive. Asked last month if he believed Mr Martin would lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election, and if Mr O’Callaghan wanted to be his party’s leader, Mr O’Callaghan’s support for his party leader came with no caveats.

“I think the Taoiseach is doing a very good job,” Mr O’Callaghan said.

"I think some people forget that he led us very successfully in the general election that took place less than a year ago.

In respect of your questions about the future, my response would be: ‘I’m not a prophet’.

Not a prophet, but even a participant? Within Fianna Fáil some who would be minded to support him have begun to wonder if Mr O’Callaghan is biding his time, or if he wants the job at all.

Others point to Fianna Fáil’s successful toppling of Ms Fitzgerald and wonder what lessons lie therein into the justice minister’s thinking.

While Mr O’Callaghan has vehemently and eloquently defended that move in the years since, some in his party wonder if they gained much by getting what one source called “a scalp for the sake of a scalp”.

The lesson in that affair, they argue, is one of timing.

If Mr O’Callaghan feels that pushing Mr Martin now would be bad timing, it makes sense to build his case to lead the party in his role as justice minister. His recent harder stance on immigration has been welcomed by some in the party who felt the Government had been too passive on the issue, for example.

But others question whether Mr O’Callaghan’s own passivity as they see it could allow another challenger — Darragh O’Brien or Dara Calleary, perhaps — emerge while he is biding his time.

At present, neither of those men has shown any desire to begin their own challenge, which begs the question; if there’s a cohort in Fianna Fáil who wants a change of leadership, who is going to lead them?