Paul Hosford: Ireland needs long-term budgets that look beyond short-term politics

Simon Harris wants budgets judged as part of a five-year cycle — but true long-termism demands vision beyond elections

Tánaiste Simon Harris: 'The commitments that we have given during the election and in our programme for government must be delivered. But some of them will take a number of budgets to deliver.'

At his party’s think-in earlier this week, Tánaiste Simon Harris made an interesting pitch.

Speaking to TDs and senators in a hotel conference room in Mullingar, Co Westmeath, he made the case for a medium-term view of what has become known as the “budgetary process”.

Put simply, he told his party that the work of governments must be judged in five-year cycles.

“Now let me be clear. We’ll not be able to do everything in Budget 2026. But this budget should be seen as the first instalment of five,” he said.

“The commitments that we have given during the election and in our programme for government must be delivered.

“But some of them will take a number of budgets to deliver. But Budget 2026 must start outlining the direction of travel.”

The pitch from Mr Harris is this; we elect governments for five-year terms and they should be judged in that totality instead of on their handling of the issue of the day. 

This is not revolutionary thinking. Politicians often make charges of short-termism against their foes and everyone likes to see themselves as the sage one, the one that understands that people who make decisions are judged ultimately by history books and not by newspapers.

Mr Harris repeated the phrase in a media event at his party’s think-in, suggesting that it has been workshopped and crafted. 

This may be because it is something which he believes in, maybe he’s had enough of chasing easy wins. Or, if one was to be cynical, it could simply be an exercise in expectation management.

This budget, just weeks away, will not come with the financial largesse of its last four predecessors, with moderation the new watchword, despite the fact that Budget 2026 will include additional spending of €7.9bn — an increase of 7.3% year on year which is well above the Government’s own 5% spending rule.

There is unlikely to be swings for the fences on this like childcare. Asked about that particular issue, and specifically fees, on Monday, Mr Harris indicated that help in the budget on that front might focus more on expanding access to and capacity in the sector.

One of the problems with dedicating yourself to the medium to long-term needs of a country is that you become a hostage to a changing of the guard. 

If the electorate decides you are out, so too might be your policies, making it very attractive to win over voters in the short-term.

On Thursday, a man who up until January was a cabinet member alongside much of the current crop of ministers, Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, accused the Government of raiding a fund his party had established to pay for water infrastructure and Metrolink. 

The €3.14bn Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund was touted by the party when it was established as being set to focus on projects “that help cut Ireland’s use of dirty, imported fossil fuels, make our public and private building stock more energy efficient, support the rollout of district heating, restore our natural habitats, improve water quality in our rivers and lakes, reintroduce once-common species such as eagles and osprey, and remove river barriers that stop fish swimming upstream”.

Government takes hatchet to Green Party’s achievements

Mr O’Gorman said that this iteration of the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael had effectively taken a hatchet to many of his party’s achievements between 2020 and 2025.

“For example, the climate and nature fund, that €3bn fund to help us meet future challenges in the area of climate. The Government has raided that and is using that to fill current gaps in infrastructure spending,” Mr O’Gorman said.

“Not one cent of that €3bn is going to be spent on nature restoration.”

The call for an instalment-based view of governments year to year can also be considered in the context that last year the budget saw one-off payments before Christmas, cuts to taxes and additional spending, which are all targeted at putting money back in people’s pockets just weeks before the Dáil was dissolved and an election called. 

While that budget ran a surplus, the criticism remains that much of what it had extra was spent through untargeted measures. 

The €2.2bn cost-of-living package announced as part of the last government’s final budget included two €125 electricity credits for every household, one of which was paid to households before the end of 2024.

So, how do we bake the idea of looking to the future into our political system? In July, one concept was put forward that has been knocking around for some time. 

Coalition 2030, a group of civil society groups and trade unions held an event in Dublin City urging the government to enact a bill that would lead to the creation of a Commissioner for Future Generations. 

The gathering at Buswells Hotel was attended by members of the UN Youth Delegation, GOAL, INTO, Social Justice Ireland, Irish Environmental Network, and the Disability Federation, who all argue that the position is necessary to ensure that younger generations become stakeholders in future legislation.

The Commission for Future Generations Bill had been under scrutiny by the Oireachtas committee on children, equality, disability, integration and youth prior to the general election in November 2024, but was slow to be put back on the new government’s legislative agenda.

The role is based on a Welsh position, which was established a decade ago. Derek Walker, the current commissioner, has written that the experience in Wales means that “government and public bodies must, by law, deliver decent work opportunities and a low carbon society”. 

This, he says, has seen a revamp of the country’s education system and a “new purpose-driven curriculum that has an emphasis on mental health and developing ethical, well-rounded young people, who are taught eco-literacy from an early age”.

It is one thing to say that a government should be judged on a five-year rolling basis, which is absolutely fair. But what about those who come of age in six or 10 or 20 years? 

Do we have the stomach and vision to say that what we do now must not just benefit us, but our children and their children? 

Can we escape from the commentary which seeks to make successes or failures of individuals or policies on a day to day basis?

I believe that Simon Harris is right that the budget should be seen as an instalment, but not one of five. 

It should be seen in the overall context of the lives of the people in Ireland between now and 2050 or later. 

It should be viewed in its overall contribution to not just those who are voting or paying tax now, but those who will inherit this country from them.

And that will take a national conversation and some courage to face down the demands for every penny to be spent on the now.

It will take reckoning with the challenges of demographic and population growth. It will take the media understanding this. 

It will, most of all, require the political nerve to avoid doing things like prioritising popular short-term wins or raiding Ireland’s sovereign wealth fund to finance those victories.

The pivot to long-termism, if that is what Mr Harris is hinting at, is welcome, but will take time, an accepting public and media and a government which doesn’t abandon it when it gets the chance.