Elaine Loughlin: The conscious uncoupling of Government has begun

Trying to sell themselves as very different parties to voters, while at the same time remaining respectful due to the possibility of forming a successor government, will be a difficult task for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael

Tánaiste Micheál Martin, Taoiseach Simon Harris, and Minister Eamon Ryan. 'No one really thought of the break-up.' Picture: Sasko Lazarov/Rolling News

The conscious uncoupling has begun, but not even Gwyneth Paltrow has written a manual on how to amicably break up a Government.

While a massive effort was put into establishing the historic Government, made up of the two civil war parties and the Greens, little thought was put into how they might part ways in an orderly fashion.

As an Irish Examiner survey shows that the majority of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TDs and senators now want to go to the country before Christmas, politicians are clearly gearing up for an election.

"You can see fraying," said one Leinster House source of the niggles and snipes that have been sneaking into the discourse between the three coalition partners, but specifically the two main parties.

Back in 2020, in the grips of a global pandemic, a coalition deal including the novelty of a rotating Taoiseach, was done during a period of great uncertainty. At the time many were unable to see beyond lockdowns and restrictions, let alone envision what might happen towards the end of a five-year term in office together when politicians would have to go back to the country.

"Every effort was focused on getting us into an arrangement. The thought of going into government with Fine Gael at that point was unimaginable to many of the grassroots, so that was a massive hurdle to get over with the membership," said one Fianna Fáil source.

"No one really thought of the break-up," they added.

And yet here we are.

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They view of when that break-up, in the form of a general election, will come is split, but the majority want to get out before Christmas.

Of those questioned, 23 (64%) Fianna Fáil members want to go to the country before Christmas, eight politicians (22%) want to wait until next year, while five (14%) stated that they didn't mind when a poll happens.

Of the 33 Fine Gael members questioned, 17 (52%) want a pre-Christmas election, 13 members (39%) would prefer to wait until the new year, and three (9%) said they don't have a preference.

Senior members of Government know that untangling what has been (for the most part) a well knitted-together coalition, must be done in a careful manner if both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are ever to do a future deal.

However, telling that to backbenchers — a bunch who are always looking over their shoulders and are now laser focused on retaining their seats come the election — might be a more difficult task.

At a private meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party last week, members took aim at Fine Gael Justice Minister Helen McEntee labelling her performance on immigration a "disaster".

But minor tensions have also been seen at more senior levels, with Tánaiste Micheál Martin questioning figures provided by McEntee after she stated that 80% of those seeking asylum here now come across the border.

Minister for Justice Helen McEntee's performance on immigration as Justice Minister has been called a 'disaster' by some in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party recently.

In the background, the counter-briefing and chicanery had also stepped up a level.

The appointment of Simon Harris as Taoiseach was always going to bring a certain frisson to coalition relations, but being so close to a general election adds yet another dimension.

At the beginning of this Government it's fair to say that Leo Varadkar and Martin did not make for comfortable bed-fellows and there was a settling in period of many months.

But as one Fine Gael member with ministerial experience pointed out, "the difference now is that bedding in period is happening in the run-in to a general election".

Anxious about both the upcoming local elections and what may follow, there is a scrambling within both parties to distinguish themselves from each other among voters.

"I can feel a different current, but I think it's a mix of things, it's the new administration, I think it's the local and European elections and I think it's the most recent poll," said one Fianna Fáil source, referring to an opinion poll which saw the party slump to a two-year low.

But one senior Fine Gael politician stressed the importance of keeping relative civility between the parties as they slowly drift apart.

"At leadership level Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are very anxious to get on with each other, because how we arrive at an election will be critical," he said.

"It's very important that we don't cause an election through acrimony," the source said adding that in this election, transfers between both the main Government parties may be key to gaining enough seats to at least have the option of forming a successor government.

Selling themselves as very different bands to voters, while at the same time remaining respectful, will be a difficult task for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael members as we edge towards the ballot box.