Alison O'Connor: Leo Varadkar making rookie mistakes as he feels pressure of the polls

Leo Varadkar’s public remarks about Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe’s position as head of the Eurogroup caused a furore in Fianna Fáil.

There has been no mention of the war as our most powerful politicians knock heads together on how best to disperse the billions involved in next week’s budget.

That’s according to a very well placed Government source, not referring to that war, the one where Russia has invaded Ukraine. Rather, it is the unedifying spectacle of Tánaiste Leo Varadkar trying to publicly shame Fianna Fáil into allowing Paschal Donohoe stay on as Finance Minister in order to retain his role as President of the Eurogroup.

Budget negotiations, understandably, have been intense as the Government attempts to work out the best way to help people this winter with the basics of buying groceries and heating homes.

But while it has been fought over in public, in private, the issue of hanging on to that top job with the group of finance ministers from the countries that use the single currency, has remained the elephant in the corner of the room.

Just as it should be, many would say. After all, Irish people right now are worrying about their ability to get bread on the table and how much it will cost to boil the kettle for a cup of tea come February.

Recently, on the round of beginning-of-new-political-term chats, running up to the Dáil reconvening, it was quite remarkable how many times I heard, including from Fine Gaelers, “sure that’s Leo for you”, in relation to various issues, usually accompanied by a roll of the eyes.

It started two summers ago when he was first appointed Tánaiste. It became clear then that Taoiseach Micheál Martin was going to have to keep his lip almost permanently bitten. 

‘Don’t rise to Leo’s bait’ must have been his morning mantra as the Tánaiste repeatedly attempted to usurp his boss, not least by jumping in and making announcements about Government decisions in order to get the kudos.

We also had Varadkar’s attack last week on the Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare. Similar playbook. He described some of the commission’s proposals as being “straight out of the Sinn Féin manifesto”.

This charge related to a group of people who took on an important task, as requested by Government, and took it seriously. They met 26 times over 13 months, and produced a fine report.

As the title, Foundations for the Future, makes clear, its aim is to examine how the State could raise revenue in future years. Only this week, we were given the perfect example as to why Government needs this type of advice. 

We had the long-awaited announcement of pension reforms, but no official word yet, and no idea of when we’ll know, on the amount of extra PRSI that will eventually be needed from workers to pay for these measures. The Government’s fear on this political hot potato issue is understandable. But tell that to younger Irish workers who will end paying the eventual bill. Our demographics paint a clear picture of where this is all going to end up.

The advice from that commission about its report is to read it in the round, not pick off bits you do or don’t like. But Varadkar, in a nonsensical move no matter how hard you think about it, attacks this group of people. At its most basic, this sort of behaviour means that in the future, our best and brightest, asked to serve in order to assist the State, might be tempted to make a rude gesture in response.

Apart from that, what did the Fine Gael leader hope to achieve? The main consequence, which could have been seen a mile off by a politics undergraduate, was the further mainstreaming of Sinn Féin. “Student union politics ” was the description of one senior person in Fianna Fáil. This conversation was over the phone so I couldn’t see the accompanying eye roll, but I felt it.

They went on to say of the Tánaiste: 

Right now he’s messing and he’s messy, although we did guess it would get like this. He can’t help himself. The criticism of the commission is the latest example.

The context of Fine Gael’s dismal opinion poll ratings must be a factor in Varadkar’s desperation. The opinion polling company Red C began its series of polls in the Sunday Business Post in 2005. Seventeen years later, its most recent survey showed Fine Gael with its worst ever result at 18%, just one point ahead of Fianna Fail.

Whatever very slim chance Paschal Donohoe had of hanging on to that Eurogroup job, it crashed and burned once his boss brought it so crassly into the public domain. In doing so, he annoyed the hell out of Fianna Fáil, eventually eliciting a perfectly worded response from Michael McGrath. 

The current Minister for Public Enterprise and Reform made it clear on RTÉ’s This Week programme: Fine Gael can shove off. He will be taking his place in the Department of Finance in December, as agreed between the two parties.

You do wonder what might have happened, if instead of the loud hailer tactics, there had been a bit of sounding out behind the scenes, a willingness to offer significant concessions to Fianna Fáil. Instead, whoever writes the first chapter in a book entitled How Not to Do Politics could surely use this example of rookie behaviour in the first chapter. 

Again you are left wondering: What’s your strategy Leo? What outcome were you hoping for? Are you simply desperate?

So Fianna Fáil and the Greens sit in budget negotiations right now with a government partner with whom they have trust issues. Interestingly enough the leaders do, on the surface, seem to get on. Doubtless that has so much to do with the very deep breaths taken by the Taoiseach and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan when they find themselves once again publicly ‘Varadkared’.

There are many budget decisions that remain to be made. As of late this week, the final childcare package — Minister for Children Roderic O’Gorman says he wants the average cost of childcare to be halved over the next two budgets — had not yet been fully agreed.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

Much of the ongoing discussions over the weekend will surround just how many people would benefit by the increasing and even doubling of certain payments. For instance, on the fuel allowance, 360,000 people are currently in receipt of that payment. 

Then you look at protecting jobs, for example, a situation such as a small hotel with 60 employees, plus a swimming pool which has caused fuel bills to go through the roof.

There is, luckily for us, a lot of money there to spend. But such has been the kite flying all round that by Tuesday the equivalent of a Lotto jackpot win for everyone in the country might be deemed a little bit disappointing.

It will be interesting to see what gunpowder the Fine Gael leader manages to throw into the mix.