Daniel McConnell: Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil edge ever closer to oblivion
Micheál Martin is under fire from within his own parliamentary party — with whom he already had an uneasy relationship — over the party's poor election results, and an apparent reluctance to discuss them properly. Picture: Damien Eagers/PA
“This party is going down the tubes.”
This was the frank assessment of a senior Fianna Fáil TD this week after it was confirmed the party’s proposed meeting to discuss recent electoral woes and current opinion poll slump was being put back by more than a week.
To say TDs and senators were angry would be an understatement.
Some were well beyond livid. Some were genuinely upset.
Following their candidate Deirdre Conroy’s mauling in the Dublin Bay South by-election (she got less than 5% of the vote), the FF faithful was angsty at the final parliamentary party meeting in July.
After a poor showing in the general election 18 months ago, the party has been suffering near-record low poll ratings for much of the time since it entered government in June 2020.
The lack of any discussion about the 2020 result and a perceived long fingering of such a retrospection has been a bone of contention for well over a year.
Dublin Bay South was never likely to be a happy hunting ground for Fianna Fáil, but the result was worse than even the most pessimistic forecasts, and immediately brought Micheál Martin’s leadership into the spotlight.
Since the result, we have had motions of no confidence being circulated among members but there weren’t enough people at that stage to put their names publicly to it and it ran into the sand.
At that parliamentary party (PP) meeting, Barry Cowen’s suggestion of a special one-day standalone in-person meeting was unanimously agreed and the meeting was scheduled originally for next Wednesday.
But in an email from government chief whip Jack Chambers last Friday, it was made clear the meeting was being pushed into the following week to coincide with the normal pre-Dáil term think-in.
Cue the outcry.
A series of emails began circulating among TDs which of course were immediately leaked to the media.
Billy Kelleher blasted that he, as an MEP, had cleared his diary to make sure he could attend the meeting and was unavailable at the new proposed time as he has engagements in Europe to attend to.
Others — including Cowen, Kilkenny TD John McGuinness, Galway TD Éamon Ó Cuív, and Sligo TD Marc MacSharry — made clear their displeasure.
The suspicion among some was this was a cynical attempt by the leadership to curtail the conversation about the electoral failure to as short a timeframe as possible.
As Cowen wrote in his email:
"I have every faith therefore that you will ensure the PP decision to agree the Taoiseach’s commitment will be honoured."
Party chairman Brendan Smith had to dispatch an email to quell the disquiet saying the first day of the think-in will be totally given over to the electoral issues.
Party TDs feel angered too by being excluded by the internal review, headed up by junior finance minister Sean Fleming, given they are the ones on the frontline seeking election.
Things have not been helped by the fact that the location for the meeting has not been sorted yet. While Mullingar has been mentioned, nothing has been finalised.
They also look to the other parties like Fine Gael — who have had their think-ins sorted weeks ago — as a sign of the disorganisation and apathy which they say has engulfed the leadership.
Hence the sense of a party that is in the dumps and going down the tubes.
The truth is that Martin has never had an easy relationship with his own parliamentary party.
Most respect him, given what he has been through personally, but they have a huge issue with how he has led his party.
They see him as aloof, disconnected, and dispassionate to their needs as defenders of his Government’s actions.
While in a recent interview with me, Martin insisted he has a very good and open relationship with his TDs and is accessible to them, many of them do not see it that way.
They see a man deliberately disconnected from his own parliamentary party, who has put the desire to be Taoiseach above all else, no matter what the cost.
What has changed though is moderate TDs who have no interest in agitating but who now fear for their seats are becoming resentful of how the party is being run.
While the Fianna Fáil rebels could not get the 10 signatures they needed to put down the motion of no confidence in their leader, by my calculation, there are more than that who would support such a motion were it put.
Heading into that key meeting on September 9 — and this is no more than my read of the situation — I reckon the following TDs and senators would back a change of leader:
Padraig O’Sullivan (Cork North Central),
Jim O’Callaghan (Dublin Bay South),
Micheal Moynihan (Cork North West),
Andrias Moynihan (Cork North West),
Willie O’Dea (Limerick),
Jackie Cahill (Tipperary),
Niamh Smyth (Cavan Monaghan),
Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (Carlow Kilkenny),
John McGuinness (Carlow Kilkenny),
Dara Calleary (Mayo),
James Lawless (Kildare),
Barry Cowen (Offaly),
Éamon Ó Cuív (Galway West),
James O’Connor (Cork East),
Marc MacSharry (Sligo Leitrim),
John Lahart (Dublin South West),
Sean Haughey (Dublin Bay North).
Plus senators Malcolm Byrne, Timmy Dooley, Mark Daly, Aidan Davitt, Shane Cassells, and Pat Casey.
Add in MEPs Barry Andrews and Billy Kelleher and, while there may of course be others, that is a sizeable rump of his own party that at the very least Martin has lost entirely or who believe he should go.
Yet, the problem with Fianna Fáil — as happened with both Charlie Haughey and Brian Cowen (for so long until Martin himself did it) — despite widespread deep unhappiness and anger, the lack of a dragon-slayer willing to take him out means his position is safe for now.
Obviously, all eyes remain on the main stalking horse of Jim O’Callaghan, but his star has somewhat faded since his refusal to take a “limited” junior ministerial role and, more recently, his handling of the Dublin Bay South by-election as director of elections.
O’Callaghan now runs the risk of having been the heir apparent for so long that he himself becomes old news and attention shifts elsewhere.
But what might be his salvation is the clear desire that the next party leader needs to come from Dublin if it is to stand any chance of regaining lost ground.
While Michael McGrath, the public expenditure minister, also holds leadership ambitions, the chances of the party plumping for another Cork-based boss are slim.
The Taoiseach insists he will lead his party into the next general election and become Tánaiste in December 2022 and he could well do that if no challenger emerges.
For him to do so with the genuine support of his colleagues, he needs to transform his party’s standing with the public, and radically transform and modernise its messaging and identity.
It is a tall order and the party which has dominated Irish politics for much of the last century is edging ever closer to irrelevancy and its marginalisation could well end up being Martin’s enduring legacy.
