Alison O'Connor: Given our unique circumstances, zero Covid is simply not realistic

Those calling for a ‘sealing’ of the 500km of border are looking for the impossible

The Government is developing laws that require travellers arriving in Ireland to quarantine. Picture: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

We have hit peak ‘kick the cat’ territory. January 2021 will be remembered as the lowest of low points in our Covid experience. 

We crossed the 3,000 barrier in terms of Irish deaths from the virus and we’ve received a savage psychological kicking.

We’re not allowed to physically travel any distance, but increasing numbers have collectively landed in a place where they want to be residents — zero-Covid New Zealand. At least in their hearts. But that is never going to happen here.

Currently our virus numbers are going in the right direction but, given the huge volume of cases, it will be some time before we reach 'good' levels. 

The healthcare system will remain under serious pressure for some time. 

It really is impossible to imagine what people who work in hospitals are going through at the moment. They deserve so much respect for what they do on our behalf.

We can only hope that we are at the nadir right now when it comes to this horrible virus. This was a month of darkness and harsh reality. 

Those 3,000 Covid deaths mounted up over the weeks as we stewed in the aftermath of Christmas revelry, mixed in with the deadly spread of new variants. 

This pandemic, I’ve found, has brought us to some strange places psychologically — not least in recent days a very base, and clearly totally wrong, urge to send in some corporate heavies to the headquarters of vaccine makers AstraZeneca to insist we get our vaccine delivery back on track. 

On Monday, when January passes into February, there will be a collective sigh of national relief as we bid this seemingly interminable month goodbye.

On Tuesday, the Government confirmed what we all knew; that we would be remaining in level five until March 5, at least. 

But what’s the plan after that, was the rather plaintive cry that subsequently rang around. 

The truth is that we can’t have a realistic plan at the moment for what happens after that, well not one that would do anything other than pander to our national bad mood.

Having said that, a bit of that pandering is no harm at the moment, given how low we are all feeling. The human instinct is to look for a way out, to want certainty. 

We all have our wishes and desires, be they in business or personal terms.

But how can the Government produce an escape plan right now, which looks into even the medium term, that is in any way based on reality? 

That is not to say that the measures it announced this week, such as quarantine and border-related measures, didn't come across as being entirely half-arsed. 

Days after the announcement, uncertainty remains, for instance around quarantine for airline passengers and how it might be policed.

These unfinished plans left a wide-open door for opposition parties. 

Politically, things have moved on from what was a general consensus on the Covid approach to where they have not had to dig deep at all to lob valid criticisms at the Government.

At Tuesday’s Government media conference, the message was fairly blunt — we’re trying to give some hope here, but the huge volume of cases, the problems with the vaccines and the unpredictability of the new Covid variants mean that certainty cannot be given on any front at present.

Anything positive that happens after that will be considered a bonus by everyone.

Who would have predicted the AstraZeneca bombshell a week ago? 

Have you heard of the new strain in Zambia? Who would have imagined a month ago that the newspaper and the morning talk shows, then filled with a cacophony of voices looking for everything to open back up for Christmas, would now be full of questions on why we can’t hermetically seal the border with Northern Ireland and outrage at people returning from sun holidays.

Would you have imagined, as 2020 drew to a close, that most of Europe would be looking on the Irish as Covid pariahs because of our high levels of the UK strain, well over 60% now of new cases diagnosed?

I’d wager that the collective blood pressure of the Prime Time audience went through the roof on Tuesday night — mine certainly did — as the camera crew at Dublin Airport recorded a group of Spanish students returning to Ireland from Madrid to continue their studies here, as well as Irish people returning, on a different flight, from holidays in Lanzarote.

The numbers have shown that foreign travel did not feature significantly as a driver of the virus here. The game changer is the arrival of the new strains. 

Israel, so far ahead on its vaccine rollout, plans to shut down its international airport by the end of the week to keep out those new strains. Across Europe it looks as if everyone is moving towards similar approaches to travel.

On Monday, the European Commission updated travel advice. Anyone leaving a country has to have a negative Covid test and go into quarantine on arrival. Non-essential travel is “strongly discouraged”. 

An update of the travel traffic light system has seen the introduction of a new “deep red” category — one we easily fall into right now with our soaring levels — meaning tougher restrictions on travellers arriving from such countries.

So a stricter, more collective EU approach is under way. Many countries, like us, have a land border, but ours is known globally for its particular and peculiar complications. 

Given our unique circumstances, zero Covid is simply not a realistic strategy. 

But that does not absolve the Government from doing everything it can to discourage travel between both sides and having maximum co-operation with the northern executive, as well as the UK government — and a high-profile Garda presence on the ground.

But those who call for a “sealing” of the 500km of border, with its 300 or so major and minor crossings, are looking for the impossible. Our history has told us that. 

There is also the reality that the DUP will never ever agree to the stopping of flights to the UK. Life would be so much easier if this was not the case, but there you have it.

It’s very difficult to know what to think these days. The waiting is intolerable, not to mention the realisation that the days of us dropping entire levels of the Living with Covid plan, or indeed skipping levels, is over. 

The best we can hope for now is an incremental return of schools in March, along with some construction sites, all the while gauging how these changes are affected by the new variants. 

We can also hope that the outlook on the vaccine delivery starts to pick up soon.

It is difficult to accept but, as of now, the situation simply is what it is.