Labouring over election call — sometimes the trick is there is no trick

An early election would be a big risk for Fine Gael, but an even bigger one for Labour, writes Gerard Howlin

The more divided the opposition, the stronger the position for the largest party in the next Dáil. This will almost certainly be Fine Gael. A slow, sustained recovery for the Government parties coupled with at least three emerging alternatives from what are generically called ‘independents’ means that even if shy of an overall majority, Fine Gael and Labour would more likely be able to find the numbers to form another government. The fact that there may be several smaller blocs to do business with, gives the government advantages. Firstly if each of the new groupings enjoys some electoral success, none will hold the balance of power, or the whip hand. Secondly by being groupings of some cohesion, they offer the possibility of a deal that sticks.

This developing political landscape, together with modestly increased support for the Government means that, after an inauspicious interval, it again has a possibility of re-election. Taoiseach Enda Kenny, more than anyone understands the historical significance. The longest-serving TD in the Dáil he followed three Fine Gael taoisaigh - Liam Cosgrave in 1977, Garret FitzGerald in 1982 and 1987 and John Bruton in 1997 - into opposition after only one term. For him, the Holy Grail is re-election. It would be vindication, after a political lifetime characterised by underestimation, or even denigration; and would make him the most successful leader of his party ever.