What Irish voters and politicians will learn from the British election
Both of the main parties are level in the polls. Neither (it seems) can win an overall majority. Both have money to spend. Already — and parliament hasn’t been dissolved yet — both of the main leaders have been grilled by Jeremy Paxman in a television debate.
It’s like a delicately poised football match between two top teams. There’s every possibility it will be decided by mistakes rather than by brilliance.
The two main party leaders are impressive. Both are on top of the brief, and both seem to have what it takes to run a gruelling campaign. Conservative leader and prime minister, David Cameron, is, of course, the better-known and the more experienced, and his challenger, Labour leader, Ed Milliband, has to come from well behind.
This election is about moving forward - and as Prime Minister, that is what I will deliver. My statement from No10: https://t.co/yV1d8sb55J
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) March 30, 2015
At least he did until they both underwent the Paxman treatment the other night. I was, to be honest, expecting Milliband to come off much worse from that encounter. He actually won it, and I think enabled himself and his party to start the campaign at level pegging. You had a sense of ‘game on!’ at the end of the debate.
You know a Labour leader is doing well in the UK when the conservative press gets personal. So far, the worst they have been able to accuse Milliband of is that he has two kitchens in his house. If that’s the worst ‘scandal’ they succeed in turning up, then maybe this time Labour in the UK will get a fairer crack of the media whip.
I’ve never been sure whether Taoiseach Enda Kenny stole his famous five-point plan from British politics, or if it was the other way round.
However, I gather we are going to be hearing lots from Milliband’s Labour about five-point plans. He seems to have one for everyone in the audience — a five-point plan for pensioners, a five-point plan for NHS patients, a five-point plan for hard-pressed mums, and so on. It worked for Enda — but he had the same five-point plan for everything. Simplicity works best!
Milliband has had to convince people that he’s old enough and wise enough and tough enough for the big job.
Here’s our message to British businesses today: pic.twitter.com/gMFPRD8VCd
— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) March 30, 2015
That’s why he says “Hell Yes” every time he’s asked any of those kinds of questions. And that’s why, right now, you can buy a ‘Hell Yes’ t-shirt on the British Labour Party’s website.
If you’re a fan of Martin Freeman, I think you’ll like this video he's made on the choice on offer at this election→ https://t.co/Y17lj1mF3W
— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) March 30, 2015
I’m not sure about that kind of thing — messaging that focuses on the personality rather than on the idea has a habit of blowing up. Confidence matters in these things — but there’s a fine line between confidence and arrogance, especially when the media is watching like a hawk.
If you look at the two party websites — Labour’s and the Tories — the Tories seem tired and old. If you send them a few bob, they’re offering to send you both a mug and a fridge magnet in return. The fridge magnet says “Labour break it. The Conservatives fix it.” That’s the biggest idea on the home page of the website, which seems to be asking the British people to keep Cameron because he’s a grand chap.
I’m sure he is. I’m equally sure that if he and his team can’t come up with some better ideas — and if all they have to offer is negative campaigning — they could be in trouble before this campaign gets properly warmed up.
Every political activist on this side of the water will be following the British election closely. That will be partly because we love the sport, and partly to see if there are any lessons to be learned, or any new rabbits to be pulled out of the hat. The role of social media, for instance, is sure to be scrutinised, because the time is coming when the politician who can’t hack it on twitter and Facebook will be in trouble.
This is the most important election for a generation - with a stark choice between me and Ed Miliband. My video: https://t.co/lt931rWuFS
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) March 30, 2015
But the other reason for the fascination with the British election is that our own is edging ever closer. Ever closer in terms of time, but also, just maybe, ever closer in terms of outcome.
I really do hope, for its own sake, that the Government keeps going well beyond the next budget. If there was one thing former taoiseach Bertie Ahern always got right (there’s something I never thought I’d write!), it was his insistence that every government of his ran a full Dáil term.
Apart from anything else, that certainty always disarmed the opposition, and kept his own troops properly geared to the task in hand.
I know from experience (usually unhappy experience) that the minute speculation starts to grow about a possible election, political people can think of nothing else. Even TDs who are absolutely certain that they will lose their seats become gripped by a sort of insane desire to get it over with.
Because the other thing that’s happening is that the Government is beginning to look like it can win. A few years ago, most commentators would have predicted that the Government couldn’t fail if they turned the economy round. A year ago, the same commentators were predicting that the Government was so badly wounded by its own mismanagement that no amount of economic growth could save them.
Given all that volatility, it’s probably mad to make any prediction right now.
But it’s clear that, for the moment at least, the Government has its political act pretty well together, and that more and more people, every day, are beginning to notice some positive personal impact from the recovery. Not enough impact yet, by any means, but enough to stir the beginnings of a shift in political support.
This weekend’s Red C poll, for the first time in a long time, showed a government that could win, and an opposition that was beginning to look fractured.
More to the point, there were noticeable shifts around the key issue of trust.
Who do you trust? Who do you trust to keep the ship steady? Who do you trust to behave cohesively? Who do you trust to manage economic recovery and not go mad? Who do you trust to make sure the recovery works for your family?
There’s a long way to go, of course.
But as our politicians spend the next month or so watching, with endless fascination, the unfolding election in the UK, they’ll see a lot of these questions answered by the British electorate.
Soon thereafter, it will be our turn to ask the same questions. Our politicians had better be ready.
Another reason for the fascination with the British election is that our own is edging ever closer
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