Ukraine in crisis: All sides will have to make concessions

THE decision by the EU last week to extend economic sanctions against Russia until the end of September reflects the growing crisis in the region. 

It also recognises the, up to now at least, great difficulty in ending a war that one of the belligerents — Vladimir Putin’s Russia — denies being involved in.

That great difficulty is exacerbated by the unfortunate reality that Mr Putin has attained something approaching a cult hero status in Russia and is happy to provoke and confront — and even annex — his immediate neighbours if such a course of action strengthens his grip on power and makes the international community pay him more attention.

The death toll in the conflict is escalating and it is estimated that some 5,000 people have been killed since fighting began last year; eastern Ukraine is enduring the worst violence since a ceasefire was agreed last September.

That spiral continued over recent days when at least 16 civilians were killed and dozens more injured. Government officials and representatives of the rebels reported deaths in locations across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Ukraine’s army also said five soldiers had died during fierce clashes with the pro-Russian rebels near the important town of Debaltseve in eastern Donetsk.

Like every war, whether it is a proxy one or not, the refugee crisis is growing.

According to the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, more than 900,000 Ukrainians have lost their homes and another 600,000 have left Ukraine to live in other countries.

Not only is Ukraine under attack, the country is tottering towards bankruptcy and the chaos that infers.

Economists believe that Ukraine’s funding gap is €15bn and it has debt-servicing bills of about $10bn (€8.7bn) this year alone — EU finance ministers have agreed to lend Kiev some €1.8bn. Urgent talks are also under way with the IMF to extend its €15bn aid package.

The details of the conflict, though harrowing, pale into insignificance when the potential for catastrophe is considered.

In many ways, this possibility is Putin’s strongest card and he is not afraid to play it.

Reminding the world of Russia’s significant nuclear capabilities is just one of Mr Putin’s sinister gambits in what is still a localised conflict.

It is easy to paint Russia as the Evil Empire in this conflict but that would be to recklessly ignore history’s lessons and today’s realpolitik.

Those who encouraged Ukraine to strengthen links with the West and the EU must have known how Russia would react and cannot be surprised their wooing of Ukraine has provoked such a hostile reaction — just as was seen in Crimea.

Russia could not politically, psychologically, or practically contemplate a traditional buffer state aligning itself with some of the western countries that threatened it so terribly in the past.

Promoting Western ideals and democracy may seem a sacred mission but it cannot be blindly optimistic.

Those realities must inform any peace deal because ignoring them will prolong the crisis in Ukraine.