Government must be the masters of spin to manage bad news
A year ago, in the aftermath of the FG leadership heave, such Utopia was unimaginable. Good fortune comes and goes. For this Duracell Bunny to continue to thrive, he’ll need a superlative communications strategy.
Make no mistake, fundamentals for Kenny are fine. As Taoiseach, his grasp on party leadership has never been more secure, despite the malcontents never being more numerous. Gay Mitchell’s presidential nomination victory should send alarm bells ringing within the party hierarchy. They preferred Pat Cox, but figured Mairead McGuinness would win. Main cohort behind Mitchell was an anti-Kenny faction and disaffected TDs. However, future leadership aspirants Varadkar, Hayes and Coveney all want Kenny in situ for years. Sore heads have no chance of dislodging Kenny for the foreseeable future. The Government may suffer backbench anguish, but the boss is impregnable.
Similarly, popularity of FG is unlikely to go below 30%. Why? By default. The ceiling on FF market share is 20%, currently hovering between 16% and 18%. Sinn Féin’s aim is to attain 20% support. Given the demise of the Greens and PDs, there is no other opposition party to pick up the slack of government odium. Prospects for a new political party seem remote. The hard slog and indefatigable commitment required rarely exists in an organised form outside of parties. Even allowing for 10% support for independents, this leaves latitude of 50% pool for government parties, with Labour support more likely to erode in hard times.
The other advantage this administration has over European counterparts is the lack of an organised focal point for protest. Scenes from Athens have not been replicated here, because there is no mainstream credible respected group that attracts discontented onto the streets. The partnership process and their contribution to the budget deficit, means union leaders are deemed to be part of the previous establishment problem. Their identity is too closely bound up with the public sector to catch the imagination of private sector workers, whose income reduction has widened by 44% relative to sheltered colleagues.
Yet despite such basic circumstances, the government presides over an electorate in sombre, sad inner turmoil. Central Bank and economic consultants Indecon paint a horror story of personal wealth destruction. 300,000 people have seen their income, assets and net worth halve. €280 billion of wealth has been destroyed. Every pocket is pilfered by renewed inflation: higher energy costs, extra health insurance premiums, household levy, dearer public transport and likelihood of more stealth taxes. Only consolation for many is that their case can be compared to others in worse circumstances of unemployment or insolvency. This material decline is without precedent in living memory.
2011 was supposed to be turnaround year. After three cumulative years of reversing living standards, we were supposed to feel an export led recovery. Talking to publicans, taxi drivers and retailers about May, June and July turnover, the average reduction is circa 10%, year-on-year on a like-for-like basis. Online penetration and the domino effect of business bad debts are perpetual negatives of commerce. People are fearful, braced for more budgetary grief. Many entrepreneurs await the next legal move by their bank. Misery is endured behind the front door and curtains so as not to add shame upon pain. Mortgagees are suffering most acute distress.
Given the practical implications of the EU/IMF four-year plan, how can government maintain momentum, while dispensing unending hardship? First requirement of leadership in times of austerity is to develop a Churchillian narrative and public relationship that is honest, accurate, sustainable and credible. The underlying tone has to be an overriding genuine empathy that connects with people. Conundrum for ministers is that their upbeat daily rhetoric to reassure investors and markets is out of touch with ordinary reality.
After the holidays, ministers know the honeymoon is over. Simply blaming FF for all our woes won’t cut much ice. There is little evidence that Kenny or Gilmore appreciate the vital importance of communications. Maggie Thatcher needed Bernard Ingham; Tony Blair depended on Alastair Campbell; Charlie Haughey and Bertie Ahern benefited from PJ Mara’s guile and charisma; Garret FitzGerald had Peter Prendergast and the “National Handlers”. Common thread? Successful statesmen realise that at the heart of enduring political popularity is the conversation, through the media, with voters. Compare the style of Cowen versus Ahern. Bertie did daily chats (mutterings) on the stump on every conceivable issue. Brian regarded interaction with the media as unnecessary and tiresome. The difference between success and failure depends on the trust and bond established or not with the public.
Previous periods of difficulty for Kenny related to communication wobbles. In the run-up to the election, Enda enjoyed his best run of success — due in no small part to the arrival into his office of Mark Mortell. His deployment of Kenny and maintaining focus on central messages were superb. As Taoiseach, Kenny may be too reliant on official mandarins for public relations, who regard the media with outright suspicion. Mortell delegated critical PR functions during the election campaign to Gavin Duffy and Majella Fitzpatrick (now with IBEC). These people don’t now work with Kenny — a crucial error.
In the brutal period ahead it’s an essential requirement to enliven the presentation of government policy and decisions with imaginative and creative communications. The press centre in government buildings resembles an undertaker’s parlour after the tumultuous horrific appearances of the bailout troika there. Behind the scenes, it is vital to individually massage egos of print editors and broadcast producers with sensitive soothing understanding and the odd scoop, leaked furtively and exclusively.
These dark arts must be skilfully led by Government Information Services or Government Press Secretary. I’m sure Fergal Purcell is a grand functionary. The Cabinet needs a Communications Council every bit as much as its internal Economic Council. The Comprehensive Spending Review must be sold as the salvation of the economy, rather than unadulterated austerity. The best way for Kenny to sustain the sunshine beyond the summer is to ensure the government apparatus includes, at its heart, superb spin. It’s the sizzle, not the sausage.
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