With our history of Dáil majorities, FG should really keep FF on side

THE Irish people did not so much speak at the ballot box last week as scream their disapproval of the current government, and this was especially apparent around the capital.

In Dublin and the three adjoining constituencies — Wicklow, Kildare North, and Meath East — Fianna Fáil failed to reach the quota in even one of the 60 seats contested. In fact, the party won only one of those seats — Finance Minister Brian Lenihan took the last seat in Dublin West, without reaching the quota.

Some people suggest that this is the end of Fianna Fáil, but the result was not as bad as what happened to the Progressive Conservatives in Canada. In 1984, Brian Mulroney led the Progressive Conservatives to the largest majority in Canadian history. Mulroney realised his race was run and stepped down in 1993. Kim Campbell replaced him and became Canada’s first woman prime minister.

She called a general election later that year, and the Progressive Conservatives suffered probably the most humiliating defeat ever in democratic politics. The party went into the election with an overall majority of over 150 seats, but won just two seats. Campbell and all but one of her ministers lost their seats. One of those elected for the first time in 1993 was Stephen Harper of the Reform Party. He later joined the Progressive Conservatives and they formed the current government in 2006, with Harper as prime minister. Thus, it could be very premature to write off Fianna Fáil.

Indeed, Enda Kenny would do well to keep his options open with Micheál Martin, who has already indicated that he would be amenable to support Fine Gael in power. Fianna Fáil has more in common with Fine Gael than any other party and the two could form a stable majority coalition, but the primeval scream that would ensue, especially in Dublin, means that such a coalition is a non-runner at this time. If Labour deputies lose the plot and make excessive demands in the next couple of years, however, Fine Gael might be glad to turn to Fianna Fáil.

This country has not a very good record with comfortable majorities. Sinn Féin won the biggest majority ever in 1921. But the party was split asunder by 1922 and the country was devastated by civil war. The next biggest win by any single party was the 20-seat majority to which Jack Lynch led Fianna Fáil in 1977. That night Lynch was decidedly uneasy about the size of his majority, and he had good reason. Geraldine Kennedy tells the story of being beside Charles Haughey at the 1977 count in Dublin when the size of the majority became apparent. This had put paid to Haughey’s chances of ever becoming Taoiseach, she remarked. “Oh no,” Haughey replied. “Those are all my men. Now I know I will be Taoiseach.” He was so confident she got him to promise to give her his first interview as Taoiseach. Little over two years later Lynch was pushed, and Geraldine got that interview.

In 1992 Albert Reynolds put together a coalition of 101 seats with the Labour Party. It was a majority of over 30 seats. Yet less than two years later, the whole thing came tumbling down. With 113 seats this time, Fine Gael and Labour would have a majority of over 50, so some lessons should be learned from what happened the previous time.

In 1992 Dick Spring led the Labour Party to what became known as the “Spring Tide”. The party won an unprecedented 33 seats, while the recent “Gilmore Gale” boosted that record to 37 seats.

When that 1992 election was called, I suggested that Fine Gael should support Dick Spring for Taoiseach. He was much more popular that the Fine Gael leader John Bruton at the time. Alan Dukes had suggested that Fine Gael would prop up Fianna Fáil in 1989 on condition that Haughey agreed to rotate the office of Taoiseach. Labour had already gone into coalition with Fine Gael in 1948, 1954, 1973, 1981, and 1982. On that basis it seemed reasonable for Spring to demand that Labour should have a turn with the Taoiseach’s office. Spring came out calling for a rotating Taoiseach instead. Fine Gael had no problem suggesting that Fianna Fáil should agree to a rotating Taoiseach in 1989, but it arrogantly ridiculed the idea of a rotating with the Labour leader three years later. But Fine Gael took it as its right that it should head the government, though at least one prominent member of the party, Austin Curry, publicly advocated on the day of the count that Spring should be Taoiseach.

Even though Fianna Fáil lost nine of its 77 seats in the 1992 general election, it was absurd to depict Fine Gael as the winner of that election, because it actually lost 10 of its 55 seats. Fine Gael was the biggest loser in that general election, yet it behaved as if it had won. Even with the support of the Labour Party, Fine Gael would still not have been able to form a majority coalition. It also needed the support of the PDs, who had 10 seats.

I WAS sent to Dublin to cover the opening of the new Dáil. The national media had all the seats on the press bench, so Spring invited me to watch the proceedings on the monitor in his office. During the opening session Des O’Malley, then PD leader, engaged in a thinly disguised attack on Spring. O’Malley seemed peeved that Spring was trying to include the Democratic Left in what would be a rainbow coalition. O’Malley’s own attack was a clear indication that such a coalition would be fraught with difficulties, because the PD’s seemed to think Labour should be little more than some kind of mudguard for the right-wing parties.

Spring told me in the office that evening that he could not lead Labour into coalition with Fine Gael, unless Bruton agreed to a rotating Taoiseach. He would be willing for Bruton to have the first two years, because otherwise Bruton might not survive as leader of Fine Gael. By their arrogance Fine Gael and the PDs essentially drove Spring into the arms of Fianna Fáil.

Things are very different now. As the biggest winner in the recent general election, Fine Gael is in a much stronger position. It has more than 20 seats extra, and Labour should be sensitive enough not to make the mistake that Fine Gael made in 1992 when it essentially drove Labour into the arms of Fianna Fáil. If Labour makes unrealistic demands either now, or in the next couple of years, it could well force Fine Gael to turn to Fianna Fáil for support. With the history of what has happened to great majorities in this country, Fine Gael would do well to keep Fianna Fáil on side, especially after Fianna Fáil has lost most of its more toxic deputies.