Kenny cost Fine Gael its best ever chance at single-party government
1. Enda Kenny may have cost Fine Gael its best ever chance, possibly its only ever chance of forming a majority, Fine Gael only government. This may seem churlish given what he has achieved. After all, the party had just 31 seats when he became its leader and he has rebuilt it to win 76, its largest ever total. He stuck at it and deserves great credit as leader for that political achievement. But Fine Gael did not press home its claim to be a single-party government in the last week of the campaign. Indeed, it seemed scared to do so.
How many of the people who voted for Fine Gael really want to see its policies diluted by involvement with Labour? (And indeed, visa versa). Labour’s campaign against single-party government seems to have worked in that it convinced some voters who intended to vote for Fine Gael to come back for it: how else can a 36.1% first preference vote for Fine Gael be explained after successive opinion polls up to the Tuesday before the election indicated that Fine Gael would get between 38% and 40% of the first preference votes? It may have been less Labour’s campaign than Kenny’s less than sure-footed performances in the closing days of the campaign that swung some people back. He gave two poor television interviews in the closing days and many Today FM listeners — the largest under-44 audience in the country and voters less set in their ways — seemed angry that Kenny refused to do any interview during the campaign with me or Ray Darcy. It may not have been single-party government that certain voters rejected, but single-party government with Kenny at the helm.
2. However, there are many reasons why FG might be glad they didn’t get a majority and why we should too. One is the composition of government, should the Fine Gael/Labour alliance be confirmed. The best five (or possibly six) ministers that Labour can offer to the arrangement almost certainly will be better equipped than the five Fine Gael people who cannot then be accommodated. Labour in power also offers a better chance of persuading the public sector unions that dramatic change and reform is required because the country is “in receivership” as Ruairi Quinn put it to me last Sunday. Labour’s presence may dilute slightly what would be best achieved but it may deliver more than what might be achieved were Fine Gael to try to go the confrontational route. And here’s another benefit to FG from coalition: it won’t be bound by its manifesto or five-point plan now. They form the basis for the programme for government but FG is not bound now by things it can’t deliver.
3. In his post victory interview with Richard Crowley on RTÉ last Saturday night, Enda Kenny showed more poise that was apparent in almost every interview he conducted during the election campaign. His demeanour was impressive: he could have been forgiven for crowing about his achievement but instead Kenny behaved with remarkably mature dignity. The contrast between this interview and Bertie Ahern’s snarling performance with Mark Little on the night of the 2007 general election count was marked. However, Kenny performs as Taoiseach he should at least be a much more gracious and modest leader than Ahern was.
4. Opinion polls should be banned for the duration of an election campaign and on the day of the vote itself. Too much newspaper space and airtime was devoted to polls when policies and issues needed to be debated. They are just marketing devices designed to get coverage in other media for the newspaper or sponsor who pays for the poll. And they can create impressions as to who people think they should vote for, because of “momentum”. Ban them.
5. Television and radio debates are useful for providing information to voters about policies and for helping in forming impressions about the ability of leaders to grapple with issues and cope with being put pressure. However, the format of the debates was not necessarily conducive to getting the best out of the leaders to the benefit of viewers. In future, especially as we have such a proliferation of parties now, a series of two way head to heads, with more interaction from the moderator, would appear to be the best way of informing the public.
6. The redundancy and pension entitlements for TDs who lost their seats are incredible, especially as in many cases the amount of funding provided by the politicians themselves is minimal. It is easy to understand why some people want to levy a super tax on these payments, in the way that it was announced that bankers’ bonuses would be taxed at a rate to make the taking of them unviable. That would be unfair. Those being made redundant deserve something, especially if they have no other job to go to. But pensions of over €100,000 per annum for people in their 50s is obscene and unjustifiable.
7. Dick Roche and John O’Donoghue stand accused of displaying political narcissism in the manner in which they departed public life.
ROCHE was within his rights to demand a recount in Wicklow but it created the appearance of a vanity exercise designed to maintain, even in defeat, his position in the pecking order in Fianna Fáil in the constituency, rather than getting him a seat. It was always going to be a futile exercise and cost the country money. O’Donoghue’s going away speech — “in a hall that I helped to build” — emphasised the hubris of many failed FF candidates. They just don’t get why what’s happened to them.
8. The make-up of the next Dáil provides a wonderful opportunity for the left in opposition to be ... well, opportunistic. I don’t doubt their sincerity in being against everything that the incoming government will bring in but it’s also easy for those who don’t have responsibility for implementing anything to do that. Sinn Féin in particular will be cynical in this regard. It can see the long game and the opportunity to win more seats at future elections by opposing everything in a highly populist fashion.
9. The age of the leading Labour figures makes coalition much more likely. If they don’t go into power now they’ll have to pass power over to the next generation. That does not mean they are being selfish by negotiating with Fine Gael. The leading lights genuinely believe they have a contribution to make in the national interest.
10. In economic terms, the most logical coalition of all would be of Fine Gael with Fianna Fáil. But while the national economic crisis is almost terminal it is not so serious that this would happen. It is not just a case of not being able to put aside old traditional rivalries. The vast majority of voters wanted Fianna Fáil punished and want nothing to do with them. Any party that dealt with Fianna Fáil would undermine its own credibility immediately.
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