With one week to go, here’s the election campaign at a glance...
1. It seems incredible that people are talking of an overall majority of seats in Dáil Eireann for Fine Gael that would allow it to form a government without support from others on the basis of opinion poll ratings of about 38%. Nor does it seem right that a party would be able to take control of government with substantially less than a majority of the popular vote. Our proportional representation system, however, was supposed to prevent that type of thing.
Apparently is it possible that quirks in the system at a time when the remaining vote beyond FG is likely to be so widely spread could somehow deliver Fine Gael with a so-called seat bounce, giving it more seats that it “deserves”. If Fine Gael is to form a single-party government, for the first time in its history, it is going to have to continue to grab even more undecided voters; yet it is possible that it will get its overall majority without matching the 41% first share of votes that left Fianna Fáil short of an overall majority last time around.
2. Clearly those outside of Fine Gael are getting worried about the possibility of it getting into power on its own. Jack O’Connor, the leader of Ireland’s biggest trade union SIPTU and president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, stuck in his oar on Tuesday, becoming this election’s Michael McDowell, echoing the former PD leader’s call of 2002 by warning of the dangers of single-party government. O’Connor couldn’t deny that Fine Gael is certain to lead the next government but advocated the inclusion of Labour as a moderating influence on the capitalist policies he fears Fine Gael would inflict.
The danger for Labour is that O’Connor does not merely have as much influence among his members as he would hope, but that his warning against Fine Gael would merely serve as a red rag to many undecided voters who know exactly how they feel about the influence of the unions upon political decision making in this country for over 20 years. Even if unfettered capitalism at the banks caused the vast bulk of our problems, these voters feel the unions cannot escape a share of responsibility for encouraging overspending of tax revenues and creating much of our public finances crisis.
3. Fine Gael may be reluctant to overtly seek an overall majority but there is no doubt but that it must be seeking it. If Fine Gael falls short of the magical 84 votes required to get a majority then what does it do? Much depends on the size of the shortfall. The likelihood remains that Fine Gael will look to share power with Labour, their combined total giving them a sizeable majority in the Dáil and the ability to take decisions without worrying about losing votes in the Dáil. That presents its own difficulties when it comes to allocating ministries. How many would Fine Gael have to concede to Labour and in what portfolios? Now would a sizeable majority necessarily protect against serious rows and possible break-up over the implementation of harsh budgetary measures, as is inevitable.
4. The temptation for Fine Gael to do a deal with so-called like-minded independents would be tempting, if only to ensure as many cabinet positions for Fine Gael members as possible, but also to limit the amount of internal cabinet rows. The electorate might prefer a single focused government too but the idea of it having to pander to a small number of independents is likely to enrage many as well. And in any case how many of the independents/smaller party TDs are likely to want to support Fine Gael? Michael Lowry certainly and possibly Shane Ross if elected, but many of the rest are left-leaning, apart from those who come from the Fianna Fáil gene pool. How ironic if it was them who put Fine Gael into power.
5. Enda Kenny’s confidence is clearly soaring. As the longest serving TD in the Dáil he has waited a very long time for this day. He clearly feels that he has put up with a lot, particularly the biting words of his critics in the media. Being Taoiseach is going to be a hugely pressurised job. Even his critics will wish him well, it being in the national interest, but that doesn’t mean that victory will make immune from further probing questions and comment.
6. Gerry Adams is being very petulant as well as dishonest about his IRA past. He can deny it all he likes but his career as leader of the Belfast Brigade in the 1970s has been documented authoritatively. His role may have changed, using his oratorical skills for Sinn Féin instead, on the other side of the same coin, but he could not have been the authoritative figure he was within the Republican movement without having seen active service. He has been telling the lie for so long that he can’t change his story now. There are those who say that it doesn’t matter and is overcome by his role in the peace process, but there are many relatives of victims of the IRA who would beg to differ. If we care about the financial corruption of politics, as we should, and seek to eject those who would engage in that from political life, then those who have an involvement in even worse should not get a free pass.
7. Eamon Gilmore must wish that all of those posters advocating his candidacy for Taoiseach could be quietly removed. The campaign has gone poorly for Labour as its own rating has slipped in the polls and that of Fine Gael has soared. Securing the Department of Finance in a coalition government, once a realistic aim, now looks almost improbable. It will be a disaster for the party if it can’t get into government in circumstances such as this, even worse if it wins less seats that Fianna Fáil, which is not impossible.
8. John Gormley has behaved with dignity as his Green Party faces oblivion, the prospect of not retaining a single seat in the next Dáil. Indeed the candour with which he has spoken in a number of interviews has been impressive. The Greens may have been badly mistaken in staying in power with Fianna Fáil for so long but they were well-intentioned if somewhat naive.
9. Michael Martin would surely sacrifice some of his own personal popularity — astonishingly he is the most popular party leader, according to the polls — for a dozen or so extra seats in the next Dáil. He must be stunned how this popularity does not seem to be transferring to Fianna Fáil. He must be hoping some voters won’t indicate a preference for Fianna Fáil when asked by pollsters, but will vote for Fianna Fáil candidates at the privacy of the ballot box while denying their actions later.
10. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund must be watching much of this campaign with some amusement and bemusement (and particularly the European Central Bank which is providing the cash to keep our banks afloat). Much of what our politicians are promising us simply isn’t deliverable without the EU and IMF agreeing to major changes in the deal struck with our outgoing government. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that they will concede substantially on a deal weighted significantly in their favour.
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