Glasses are half full or half empty, but no one has a bar tab any more

TWO men sitting in a bar, each drinking a pint. The first man’s glass is half-full. The second man’s is half-empty. Here is their conversation.

Man 1: I’m really looking forward to 2011. Things will be better.

Man 2: I’m not. They won’t be any better. They’ll be worse.

Man 1: That’s part of the country’s problem. All we hear is negativity. Doom and gloom. Nothing but people giving out on the radio, on television, in the newspapers, telling us what’s wrong with this and with that and giving people no hope. Sure, there were mistakes — we know that. But we’ve heard enough of it and it doesn’t do us any good. We are where we are and going forward it’ll be better, as long as we’re confident and talk things up.

Man 2: Really? You should be a politician with guff like that. You can’t pretend the past didn’t happen or wish it away. We’re living the consequences and we’re going to for years to come. Your attitude is part of what’s wrong in this country. All during the so-called boom years you laughed at me when I told you it was all a bubble that was going to burst. You said we’d have a soft landing. You told me I wanted things to go wrong, which I didn’t.

Now that it’s all gone belly-up you want to forget it all, don’t want to blame anyone, you’ve been telling me it’s all my fault for being one of those talking the economy down, and now you want me to agree that things will be better. Really? Where’s the evidence for that? The banks are bust, unemployment is back at high levels, emigration has returned, if you have a job your income is down and the country’s economy is the hands of foreigners, which means even more spending cuts and more tax increases. And you think things are going to be better in 2011? With the IMF and the EU in charge? We’re drinking the same thing but I don’t know what’s in your glass.

Man 1: Hold on, getting those loans from the IMF and the EU is good news. If we hadn’t gotten those we’d have no money from the middle of next year to pay our public servants, to keep schools and hospitals open, to keep gardaí on the street. Is that what you’d want?

Man 2: Do you know how much we’re going to pay for that money?

Man 1: Okay, it’s more expensive than it should be. But it’s better than not having any money to pay the bills. If we hadn’t got that loan our government would be paying more on the money markets, if it could borrow money at all.

Man 2: It was a bad deal at a bad price and it just summed up how tired and battered this government has become that it got us into this mess and then wasn’t able to strike a good rescue deal. We were walked all over.

Man 1: If you’re so worried about the Government’s performance, then isn’t the general election good news for you? Isn’t that in itself a sign that 2011 is going to be better, that we’ll have a new Government, elected by the people to suit the circumstances we’re in, with a popular up-to-date mandate?

Man 2: Do you think any new government is going to be in a position to make major changes? The new government has had its hands ties by the arrangement the government reached with the IMF and the EU. It has to do what it’s told. It’ll have to make the cuts and raise the taxes in next December’s budget as set down by the outgoing government and do the same again for the following two years and it doesn’t matter whether it’s Brian Cowen or Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore or Uncle Tom Cobley who’s in charge. And that won’t be the end of it either. The present government’s plans for the public finances are based on economic projections from a bunch of civil servants who never get it right and that are at the far end of optimistic. I hope they work. But if they don’t...

Man 1: We have our exports. Don’t forget how important they are to getting money into the country. Foreign investment is coming into Ireland because we’re a cheaper location to do business in again, perfectly located in the EU, speaking the right language of commerce. That foreign money has created hundreds of thousands of jobs, directly and indirectly, and all sorts of tax revenues. Our balance of payments is in surplus again. Our competitiveness is back. That’s all very good news that gets overlooked while we’re beating ourselves up.

Man 2: I’ll give you that. If we didn’t have that we’d be totally bunched. But one of the reasons our balance of payments is positive again is that we’re importing way less because people living here have so little money to spend. Our domestic economy is bunched. Retailers, restaurants, even pubs — so many will go out of business during 2011 because they simply can’t make profits. Even the weather this year conspired against them, stopping people from spending whatever money they had. And there’s no help to anybody from the banks, no money in them to lend to people who want to buy new houses or cars or a fridge or whatever, no money to lend to businesses to buy stock or to use as cash flow while they wait for the bills to be paid.

Man 1: Isn’t it good that people are borrowing less? Wasn’t that one of the things you used to give out about, that people were borrowing too much money that they’d never repay? And now you’re giving out because they can’t get money to borrow?

Man 2: That’s rich coming from you, when a few moments ago you were celebrating borrowing from the IMF when, during the boom years, you were all in favour of people borrowing to buy investment properties here and in Bulgaria. How many houses and apartments do you own now and how many of them are empty because you can’t get tenants?

Man 1 is quiet for a moment, then recovers: Well... We have our young people, better-educated, harder-working than any generation of the past. They’ll drive things forward.

Man 2: Do you think they’ll stay without work? Young people are not going to hang around with no money particularly when they’ve already had a taste of a better life.

Man 1: We have our sport, our culture...lots of things to enjoy and stay for.

Man 2: You were one of those Johnny-come-latelys who thought we’d win the 2007 rugby world cup! Do you think we’ll win it out in New Zealand?

Man 1: No, but when we have no chance we have a much better chance! The All-Ireland football and hurling championships are always excellent — the skill and fitness levels are way higher than they ever used to be, and there’s a level of preparation in Irish sportspeople that would put people in other walks of life to shame. They know how to deal with misfortune and cope with it. They’re our heroes.

Man 2: I wish we had heroes in other walks of life to look up to...

The men have finished their pints.

Man 1: Will we have another?

Man 2: You have one. I can’t afford it.

Man 1: Yes, you can, but you prefer wallowing in your misery.

Man 2: Easy for you to say, but I can’t and you don’t want to believe me.

So, which of the two better reflects your point of view?

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.