Pandemic threat - Carelessness will cost Irish lives

WE seem to have developed an addiction to disconcerting news and dire predictions – our day now seems incomplete without a calamity to chew over or fretting about the one looming just below the horizon. Either that or we have been forced, kicking and screaming, to confront the realities of our time.

Last week, An Bord Snip Nua sent shock waves through this country by suggesting that everyone can expect a lower standard of living if we are, by the very skin of our teeth, to avoid national bankruptcy.

Just as the fear provoked by McCarthy faded ever so slightly, just as some cynics took comfort in the entirely justifiable prospect of some of our politicians losing their nerve and dodging hard decisions, we were reminded of the possibility of yet another crisis.

Suggestions, in recent days, that up to 65,000 people may die in Britain because of swine flu have concentrated our minds on what this evolving pandemic might mean for Ireland.

To date we have had 156 cases but, thankfully, no one has died from the virus in Ireland – yet. In Britain 29 people have died and though this figure may seem insignificant, it is worrying because it represents an 80% increase in cases in a week. The British Health Protection Agency estimates that there were 55,000 new cases in Britain last week – up from a rate of about 15 people in 100,000 per day in early July to more than 40 per 100,000 now.

This spectacular acceleration cannot be ignored and it is only a matter of time before swine flu claims its first victim on this island. Because of this, the emphasis is now on treatment rather than containment, a position endorsed by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

People under 35 represent 70% of the cases in Britain so those in that category need to be especially responsible and do all they can to avoid the illness.

Some airlines – including British Airways and Virgin – are refusing to carry passengers who show symptoms. Bishops have suggested that Mass-goers desist from the usual practice of shaking hands in church. Some employers have made preparations, realising that a surge in sick leave could have a serious impact on struggling enterprises.

The Department of Health expects to receive sufficient vaccination stocks in six weeks to give the required two doses to the entire population. However, the vaccine will not have undergone clinical trials, leading the WHO to hint that our plans may be optimistic and that great caution should be applied to these vaccines.

Nevertheless, there are a whole range of well-documented procedures and reactions designed to reduce the impact of the pandemic.

We have been told that precautions about exposure and personal hygiene will make a significant difference. We have been warned to phone doctors rather than visit surgeries if we show flu symptoms. All of these measures, and many more, should be considered obligatory for the moment because, as one health expert put it, we cannot rely on drugs to defeat this potentially lethal sickness. As usual, the old World War II warning is still accurate: Carelessness costs lives.