The burning question about Ireland

Richard Collins reviews a book on climate change

IRELAND’S greenhouse gas emissions are the second highest per capita of any country in the European Union and the fifth highest in the world. Temperatures worldwide have risen by 0.7°C since the Industrial Revolution and another 0.7ºC rise is inevitable no matter what we do. However, if temperatures rise by 2°C, many of the planet’s ecosystems won’t be able to cope. We have about two decades before it’s too late to prevent this looming disaster, according to UN scientists quoted in a book which has just been published.

Ireland’s Burning, How Climate Change Will Affect You, is by Paul Cunningham, RTÉ’s Environment Correspondent. Cunningham wants to dispel some of the ignorance and complacency surrounding climate change. He has interviewed key players in the field here, including academics, politicians, wave technology researchers, a marine zoologist, biofuel growers and a theologian.

For meteorologist Gerald Fleming, climate change prediction is weather forecasting on a very long time-scale. His profession has been aware, for decades, that the world is warming up, but it has proved difficult to get the message across to the public. Nor are climate effects confined to the atmosphere: Kevin Flannery, of Dingle’s Oceanworld Aquarium, describes some of the unusual fish species which warmer seas are bringing to our shores. The plant kingdom is also affected; Peter Wyse-Jackson, director of the National Botanic Gardens, fears for the survival of many species.

Less than 1% of climate scientists doubt that human activity is a major factor in climate change.

The views of journalist Kevin Myers feature; he is the best known Irish member of the dwindling band of global warming sceptics, who are fast becoming the environmental equivalents of Holocaust deniers. Powerful institutions which are not pulling their weight are criticised; Fr. Seán McDonagh castigates his own Catholic Church for sitting on the fence. The ESB has failed to wean Moneypoint power station off coal and Dublin’s sprawl covers an area almost as big as Los Angeles.

Ireland signed up to the Kyoto Agreement, resolving to keep greenhouse gas emissions to within 13% of 1990 levels by 2012. With emissions already 24% up, we have failed dismally to meet our obligations. But Cunningham gives praise where due: of the last four Ministers for the Environment, Noel Dempsey is commended for his initiatives as is John Gormley, although it is conceded he has not been in the job long enough for an adequate assessment.

The tone of the book is descriptive rather than prescriptive. Cunningham allows his interviewees to bring forth the arguments. With his keen eye for the colourful one-liner and the quirky statistic, the book abounds in memorable quotations and amusing anecdotes.

The final chapters are headed What’s Going To Happen? In answer to this, John Sweeney of NUI Maynooth, and Ireland’s leading climate-change scientist, makes some dire predictions.

If no effective action is taken worldwide, he expects to see “summer temperatures across Ireland some 2.5°C higher than those of today” by 2050. Rainfall levels will be 30% to 40% lower in summer, the volumes of rivers being halved, with fish kills and aggravated pollution problems. Blessington reservoir will dry up and Dublin will run out of water, as will other cities and towns. Competition for water between the farming tourism and recreational sectors will be acute. Potato, grass and cereal growers will face problems, with implications for lifestock farming.

Winters will be warmer and weather patterns more erratic with frequent floods. The once-in-a-century climate event will become a once-in-a-decade occurrence. Mild winters may lead to problems with pests which nowadays fail to survive the colder conditions; trees will suffer from new diseases. Maize and soya crops may be grown.

Up to 20% of Irish plant species will have gone by 2050 and only those wild creatures which change their behaviour radically will survive.

Ireland’s Burning, How Climate Change Will Affect You, by Paul Cunningham is published by Poolbeg, €13.99.