Economic downturn - Lowest paid must not be made suffer

Economic experts will inevitably argue about the best way to extricate the country from current economic difficulties. They will probably have contradicting prescriptions.

Some difficulties are undoubtedly a result of global factors beyond our control. Maybe we could have been better prepared, but that should be a debate for another time, along with questions about who should be held responsible.

What is imperative now is that everyone should recognise that there are difficulties. The first step in solving any problem is to recognise the problem.

Despite the good economic news from Pfizer in Cork the pace of economic expansion has clearly been slowing. We have had a high inflation rate of 5% for over five quarters, and there has been a dramatic rise in consumer prices, with food going up by 10% in the past year. Fuel is also up dramatically and the consumer confidence index has never been lower.

On top of these there has been a record reduction in the Government’s expected take from taxation. Interest rates have been rising and banks have been cutting back on loans. The demand for new houses has declined and house prices have fallen. There has therefore been a dramatic fall in the number of houses being built.

All of this has had a great impact on male unemployment. The unemployment figures published yesterday are somewhat misleading, because they show a drop in the past month. The figure was eschewed, however, by the fact that the Easter break was in March this year.

Unemployment figures always increase during such breaks. The comparatives figures for April of this year and the same month last year show an increase of 41,300. As Easter fell in April of last year, this year’s increase is probably even worse than it appears.

Since the most dramatic change has been within the construction industry, this has impacted most on male unemployment, which is up by 33,000 on the same time last year. Female unemployed has increased by 7,800 people.

Brian Cowen, who is due to take over as taoiseach next week, should be particularly aware of the problem. The national average shows a 35% rise in male unemployment, but 63% up in his Laois-Offaly constituency.

In the first two months of this year calls to the Society of Vincent de Paul for assistance were up by 100% on the same time last year. The economic burdens must not be placed on those least able to bear them.

This is important from the standpoint of fairness and social equity, but it is also vital to public confidence that there should be no cutback on essential services.

Vital areas like health, transportation and education must be properly maintained, because those are investments in our future. Moreover, they are vital to public confidence in the system as a whole. Without that confidence the system will not function properly, and recovery will become all the more difficult.