Forget the polls, the punters hold the key to election predictions

Fine politicians like Denis O’Donovan were not the only ones to lose out in the election. Bookmakers lost out, too.

Celtic Bookmakers’ owner Ivan Yates became a household name and instantly recognisable face, courtesy of his showcasing by the producers of the Frank Opinion TV series. Perhaps because he made the idea of taking a political punt so interesting, more people, this time around, bet on individual candidates than ever did before. They bet more money, too, some of them wagering scary amounts of cash on individual candidates. And they did amazingly well out of their gambling.

On the morning of the count, two things were clear. The first was that Ivan Yates was richer in profile but poorer in pocket. The second was that the gamblers’ approach to results prediction had a lot more going for it than the opinion poll approach.