Lansdowne opinion poll - Opposition yet to sway electorate

AS politicians vie for the hearts and minds of voters, the intriguing findings of today’s Irish Examiner opinion poll show that if the general election were held tomorrow, there would be relatively little change on the political landscape from a year ago.

That’s good news for the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition seeking to pull off a three-in-a-row coup. But it’s bad news for the main opposition parties, belying suggestions that Fine Gael and Labour, as they highlight shared policies, are gathering sufficient “momentum” to form the next government.

Despite the leadership upheaval in the Progressive Democrats, the survey indicates that Fianna Fáil and the PDs between them could win 45% of the vote. Thus, if the stated intentions of 1,056 people quizzed up and down the country translated into votes, the outgoing coalition would be returned to power.

Conducted for the Irish Examiner by Lansdowne Research, the timing of this political snap-shot is particularly relevant since it took place last Wednesday and Thursday, immediately after the combative Justice Minister, now Tánaiste, Michael McDowell assumed the mantle of PD leader.

While two out of three electors feel the Coalition will go its full term, the countdown is already in full swing and, significantly, the poll reflects voter opinion on key issues such as health, crime, and the cost of living. Tomorrow’s report will analyse alternative taoisigh and reveal what voters think of contenders lining up for the Fianna Fáil leadership stakes.

For the new PD leader, the current picture is relatively rosy. Though his signal that stamp duty on property would be abolished reeks of electioneering, since it rakes 3 billion into government coffers, Mr McDowell will be delighted with the popular endorsement of his leadership.

Some 42% of voters take a positive view of the PD transition following Mary Harney’s decision to step down after heading the party for 13 years, while 30% regarded it as a negative development for Irish politics. On the bottom line, if an election were held tomorrow, the PDs would claim 6% of the vote, up marginally on last year.

Just edging out widespread concerns over the cost of living, healthcare and medical costs are now preoccupying voters. But the public is sceptical of Health Minister Mary Harney’s chance of turning around the A&E crisis.

On a sliding scale of public concerns, people are worried about crime, house prices, drugs, alcohol, childcare, economic management, immigration, college fees and oil prices.

In the week before the Dáil returns for the last time before next summer’s election, Fianna Fáil will take much encouragement from its 39% support levels, up one point on the September 2005 Irish Examiner poll, and only 2% shy of the 41% support that almost won it an overall majority in 2002.

While Fine Gael gained marginally, its 24% showing reflects an increase of only one point on the September 2005 poll. Meanwhile, Labour have slipped two points to 10%, bringing the party just below its first-preference vote share in the 2002 election.

Undoubtedly, the major challenge confronting the opposition parties will be to convince enough people their votes can make a difference, either by altering the status quo or by changing the incumbent administration. Clearly, they have yet to achieve this objective.

Remarkably, while health and the cost of living issues are of major concern, they are not translating into negative factors for the Government in terms of voting intentions.

But as every TD knows, eight months is a very long time in politics. Unforeseen events could yet transform the political landscape. It is still all to play for.