Tánaiste’s resignation - Harney may have done PDs a favour

THE bombshell news that Tánaiste and Health Minister Mary Harney is stepping down as leader of the Progressive Democrats with immediate effect will inevitably cause disarray in the ranks of the junior Government partner, leaving her party facing an uncertain political future.

As widely forecast when she took on the health portfolio, a department once described by fellow Minister Brian Cowen as Angola, where minefields are endemic, it has proved something of a poisoned chalice for the Tánaiste.

Characteristically, however, her desire to remain on as Minister for Health signifies a determination to face up to the daunting challenge of resolving the health crisis unburdened by the weight of the leadership role.

With next Monday the closing date for applications for the position of PD leader, in-fighting could yet erupt between highly ambitious Justice Minister Michael McDowell, president of the party, and other prospective candidates, possibly including junior minister Tom Parlon or ex-junior minister Liz O’Donnell, seen by many as a potential leader.

A bitter electoral contest would undoubtedly leave the party badly damaged. If Mr McDowell emerges as the victor, there is every likelihood he will assume the position of Tánaiste.

While Fianna Fáil backbenchers may resent his abrasive style, both as Attorney General and as Minister for Justice, he has worked closely with and got on well with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern whose aim will be to maintain the coalition arrangement.

Politically, many people will endorse EU Commissioner Charlie McCreevy’s description of Mary Harney as one of the outstanding and most courageous politicians of her generation.

Since joining the fledgling party formed by ex-leader Des O’Malley when he broke with Fianna Fáil 21 years ago, she has emerged as a political heavyweight.

Her leadership has spanned almost 13 years. She made history as the first woman to hold the title of Tánaiste and also to serve a second successive term as deputy leader of the Government.

There is no denying that Mary Harney’s decision has come as a major surprise to the PDs. Clearly, it was a bolt out of the blue for members of the parliamentary party.

Following a bruising leadership battle with Micheal McDowell last June, she had emphatically won their support. After 13 years at the top, she denies their tussle had any bearing on the decision to step down.

All Mr McDowell would say yesterday was that he was reflecting on the situation. Whether consensus can now be achieved within the party ranks will be clear in the coming days.

Ultimately, the new leader will be chosen by an electoral college which holds 40% of the votes, with 30% held by the party executive and 30% by rank and file members.

It is unclear what informed the shock decision following her return from a three-week holiday. But clearly, her vision of the party’s future and of her personal role within it have undergone a sea change.

From a political viewpoint, the PDs could now be in serious trouble. Electorally, the party is facing losses in the general election next spring. Its base is shaky both in the opinion polls and in individual constituencies. Perhaps she has seen the writing on the wall.

But with two full ministries and two ministries of state in the current administration, there is no gainsaying that Mary Harney’s career in politics has been highly successful. If health was her nemesis, she performed exceptionally in the enterprise, economic and job-creation fields.

By making the decision to step down as leader now, she gives the PDs a chance to re-invigorate their struggling party and find new directions under a new leader.