It’s far too early to write off Bertie and Fianna Fáil’s achievements

IF the weather hadn’t been so good over the summer months, Bertie Ahern would have been blamed for that as well. Frankly, given the series of intemperate personal and political attacks to which he has been subjected to over the summer months, it is surprising the Taoiseach’s approval ratings are not even worse.

There are a number of issues for which Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil carries a primary responsibility but some of the things he has been blamed for over the past few weeks have bordered on the ridiculous.

Craziest of all was last week's outburst by Pat Cahill, the president of the Association of Secondary School Teachers, who tried to blame Bertie for the fact that boys do worse than girls in the Leaving Cert. The allegation that the Taoiseach was a bad example for young men was particularly strange.

Many would argue the contrary. As someone who, without a privileged background, has managed through hard graft and effort to rise to be elected twice to the highest office in the land, the Taoiseach in fact has much to offer as a role model. The fact that this bizarre attack came from the president of ASTI was particularly ironic given the carry-on of that union during its last strike and some of the loutish behaviour at its recent annual conferences.

Intemperate attacks aside, the Taoiseach and the Government do have a trust issue with the electorate. While approval ratings in opinion polls this far back from elections can be superficial, they are indicative.

However, Bertie Ahern doesn't need opinion poll data or glossy focus groups' reports to understand that there are large sectors of the electorate who are deeply discontented with him and his current Government.

A political strategist par excellence the Taoiseach himself knows what it will take to turn the Government's fortunes around.

Bertie Ahern is the kind of person who puts his holidays to good use he walks beaches thinking things through. He returns from holidays calmer, focused on what he has to do. There are already signs that he is putting in place a recovery strategy to restore the Government's standing with the electorate.

If half of the way to solving a problem is to admit its existence, then Bertie Ahern has taken the first steps. Anyone listening to his radio interview on This Week last Sunday will have spotted that the tone was one of recognition that there is a problem.

Bertie Ahern knows that the perception had been allowed to form that the true extent of the crisis in public finances was withheld from the electorate before the election or that the Government went on a spending spree to ensure its re-election. By last spring this perception, accurate or not, was set in stone. Instead of displacing it, the Government made a political error in adopting a checklist approach about its achievements when its one year anniversary came around.

Now that the silly season excesses have passed, the Taoiseach won't be panicked into any drastic or even dramatic actions. It's not his style. His approach will be one of consolidating and beginning a hard slog to rebuild. He knows that this Government will have to slowly claw its way back to the public's affections.

Above all else, the Taoiseach knows he has time. Although the Government faces local and European elections next June, this isn't the real contest.

There are at least three years before the Government will be measured directly by the electorate. In the intervening period, the Government's competence in handling the primary political issues will be the key to any reversal of fortunes.

On the economy, the Taoiseach will be relying on the fact that disciplined management of the public finances together with an international upturn will prove effective. It does appear to be working, if belatedly.

However, the Government will have to show more flexibility to constraining the public finances. An overly rigid approach has restricted the recruitment of new posts in areas of the Government's political priority and also probably contributed to the problems for the Laffoy Commission.

A successful, controversy-free and left-of-centre budget in December will also be a key step in improving the Government's rating.

WHILE new job announcements are of no direct comfort to those who have lost their jobs in recent months, a roll-out of announcements like that from eBay this week will be important in maintaining confidence.

The other issue central for the Taoiseach in the coming months will be Northern Ireland. The negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement and, perhaps more importantly, the handling of the political and security crisis which the state was faced with in the aftermath of the Omagh bombing were central successes of his first premiership.

The coming weeks and months will be about setting the conditions for Assembly elections and the careful shepherding of the peace process irrespective of the outcome of those elections. Undermining the dissident republican threat will also remain a political and security challenge.

Another central issue on which the Taoiseach will be measured will be his handing of international relations and especially European affairs. Some have argued that the six-month Irish presidency of the European Union beginning next January has the potential to swamp ministers and their support staff at a key time leading into next June's elections. However, it is likely to be handled with the usual Irish diplomatic efficiency. There will be a political dividend for the Taoiseach from his spell as president of the European Council. He will enjoy a heightened international profile, probably finalising a new treaty for Europe and bridging US-Euro relations in an atmosphere of heightened threat from international terrorism. It is the kind of role which plays to Bertie Ahern's strengths.

A government reputation for competence can also be underwritten by a genuine effort to reform the health services and overhaul transport infrastructure.

More long-term initiatives, like the smoking ban and tackling alcohol abuse will also help. Shorter waiting-lists, cleaner air in pubs and restaurants, an up-and-running LUAS system and quieter weekend nights on the streets of towns and cities are quality of life issues which will impact on the public mood.

Bertie Ahern also knows that the current Government has been blessed with a weak opposition. Sixteen months after the election and notwithstanding the Government's bad summer, there has been no real growth in Fine Gael's vote and only a small growth in Labour's. Enda Kenny's approval ratings are still below that of the Taoiseach and Pat Rabbite's are going in the wrong direction.

It is too early to say whether the Taoiseach can or will want to achieve a historic third term. Next June's elections will tell us much. However, one thing is certain despite the recent poll results, Bertie Ahern still has it all to play for.