A softer, cudlier Mary Harney

AH yes. The first iconic image of the week. Mary Coughlan emerging through the front door of Leinster House as the new Minister for Agriculture on Wednesday. But was she waving excitedly? Or was she just drowning.

In the five months between announcement and execution, Bertie Ahern’s reshuffle had cleaned out the thesaurus for words meaning “major”. Radical. Genuine. Dramatic. Revolutionary. Life-changing. Roll up and take your pick.

Ok, there was a very long run-in which lent itself to plenty of meeja hype and which some FFers now admit wasn’t all that tactically cute. But for all of Bertie Ahern’s protestations, both opposition leaders scored with their questions echoing the famous “where’s the beef?” quip of one-time US Presidential candidate Walter Mondale.

There are certain broad-brush portrayals that tend to cleave themselves to Irish politicians and political parties. So let us repeat those sweeping definitions. The Progressive Democrats are unreconstructed right-wingers, “on-yer-bike” Tories like Norman Tebbit.

The QED for that is Michael McDowell’s infamous speech about inequality - you know, the poor will always be with us and what’s the harm in that? And the friendly FF dolphins who always escort the PD ship through choppy waters were Charlie McCreevy, Seamus Brennan and Martin Cullen. Or that the only genuine left-leaning Ministers in Cabinet are Micheál Martin and Noel Dempsey.

If you take that crude and unsubtle approach, the new dynamic of the Cabinet looks like a bit of a stew. Mary Harney in health is one thing. But Seamus Brennan in Social and Family Affairs? Brennan went on a one man crusade to break up monopolies. That alienated just about every union and social partner that his leader has spent his lifetime cultivating.

Senior people in the party were openly saying this weekend that Brennan was about to be given the flick. But Haughey’s portrayal of Ahern might have been there or thereabouts on the devious and cunning fronts. But on ruthlessness, he may have done an injustice to his lieutenant. For Ahern, when push came to shove, wasn’t as sanguine as Albert Reynolds. Brennan survived.

But putting him in Social and Family Affairs was the equivalent of Jack O’Connor telling Mike Frank Russell that he’d retained his place on the team but would be playing in goals. Something just doesn’t sound right about the Svengali of privatisation/ competition suddenly becoming the social conscience of Government.

And with Martin and Dempsey in pure economic and business portfolios, it becomes harder to see how the promises of a more compassionate and more giving Government will come to pass. Brian Cowen in Finance, of course, will have a massive sway on this. But Cowen - bright, brilliant, capable - isn’t a radical. His by-word will be prudence and it’s unlikely that, Merrion Square will inspire him to grow a long ragged beard and start wearing Birkenstock sandals.

The long run-in left Bertie Ahern in an invidious position. People expected sea-change and when it didn’t happen to the extent they expect, he was invariably open to claims of being cautious and minimalist. But part of it was of his own making.

His promise of major change went against his political grain. He has long held the view that TDs must serve their time before being elevated to office. That essentially means that he never appoints minister unless they have been apprenticed in junior positions.

That stance doesn’t seem to have any great logic behind it. If you look across the water, you will see that those with ability have been identified by Labour early and elevated early. David Milliband, for example, were earmarked for ministerial office even before being elected as an MP.

On the face of it, the composition of the Cabinet doesn’t seem to lend itself to a shift to the left. It will depend on a number of unexpected out-turns - ministers effectively defying their stereotypes. The three new Ministers may be shapers (we’ll have to wait and see). Seamus Brennan may be a revelation (unlikely). Cowen might turn out to be more radical than we have acknowledged (will he?).The most probable influencer, irony of ironies, will be Mary Harney.

If she succeeds in health, we may see the greatest conversion since Lazarus - the former right-wing ideologues of Cabinet becoming its social conscience. Don’t bet against it.