Varadkar must surely be tempted to call a snap general election

Alison O’Connor believes he showed belated wisdom in not going to the country back in December. But all he needs at the moment is a valid, or valid enough, reason to throw us all into a general election campaign.

ON SHROVE Tuesday our Taoiseach tweeted a photograph of a pancake and a selection of fillings ranging from strawberries to chocolate sauce and a plastic juice-filled lemon. It was, he said, “the last treat before the Lenten fast begins” and that he was “looking forward to an uber healthy 40 days”.

Leo knows, as the rest of us do that Lent can be a time of great temptation, even when one is trying ones best to be good. In his case the biggest temptation must surely be to call a snap general election.

He wanted to do it in December, despite it being disastrously close to Christmas, but pulled back at the last minute. Right now there are so many indicators that point towards it being a good idea that it is difficult not to imagine him actively weighing up the options on a daily basis.

If we project forward a week or two he will have launched his National Development Plan and the National Planning Framework. He may have the opportunity to have another skelp off the hapless British Government on a Brexit related matter. Perhaps there will be another opinion poll showing even more Irish people are really liking the cut of his jib.

Timing in these matters is everything. Despite being sorely tempted to go to the country in December he showed belated wisdom in rescuing the situation right at the end with the resignation of former minister for justice Frances Fitzgerald. It still causes a shudder to imagine candidates ringing doorbells around the country as voters put up their Christmas decorations, or election counts ran on into Christmas Day and beyond.

But what’s not to like about a February/March campaign? Admittedly it is still rather wintery but there is that further little stretch each evening and a possible calculation that his political capital may never be as high. Let’s remind ourselves of the most recent IPSOS/Irish Times poll in the last week of January which showed Leo Varadkar was the most popular Taoiseach since Bertie Ahern in 2007.

His personal rating was at 60% an increase of 7%, while Fine Gael was at 34%. Fianna Fáil trailed significantly at 25%. The Taoiseach’s ratings were no doubt helped by our apparent big Brexit win in early December (looking rather less shiny from this remove) and being seen to sock it to the British. Such support levels for any Irish political leader would have been impossible to imagine back in the bad ol’ days of austerity.

It is clear that the trend, as the saying goes, is currently his friend. It was for this that his Cabinet colleagues and the wider parliamentary party elected Leo; for his potential to invigorate the party beyond the traditional base and, somewhat incredibly in the times we live in, make politics seem vaguely interesting.

This very positive showing for the Taoiseach and Fine Gael came despite a torrent of negativity surrounding hospital emergency departments and waiting lists, and no respite in the bad news surrounding the housing crisis.

Right now Fianna Fáil are at a serious disadvantage, feeling on the backfoot, that their worst fears of a Varadkar leadership are coming to pass. How much thanks might they get from the voters for their responsibility in sticking with the confidence and supply arrangement? They look to be at a loss as to how to respond to Leo’s growing popularity.

One response has been to make eyes at rural Ireland, recognising it as a weak spot for the Government in terms of broadband and the National Development Plan. The merits or otherwise of this will be debated for many years to come but the draft of the plan, deemed too Dublin centric and showing that most of the midlands and northwest were ignored and seeming to exclude Sligo and Athlone, presented perfect fodder for Fianna Fáil.

We also had the private members’ motion this week on local and regional roads highlighting the underspend there, which was more grist to the FF mill.

The broadband issue, with the decision by Eir to withdraw from the competition for the national broadband plan, has the potential for plenty of further trouble. The other interesting aspect on broadband was the co-operation between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin with FF accepting a SF amendment in the Dáil.

Earlier in the week Leo’s calculation may have taken in the reflected glory from getting power sharing back up and running in the North. As we know that didn’t work out, but there is still the matter of new Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald, a worthy political opponent, being given time to settle in to her new job, or not. The party has been fairly static in polling terms of late but she certainly has the potential to turn that around.

There is also a sense of economic optimism in the air, with, despite Brexit, people beginning to feel a sense of hopefulness. The current calculation for Leo is to work out if now is the time for him to capitalise on that. An added incentive might be the reality and frustration of heading a Government that is attempting to govern a country while unable to win significant Dáil votes.

There is a major stumbling block to this imminent general election scenario and that, of course, is the abortion referendum. How could the Taoiseach justify calling an election and putting the referendum in jeopardy, certainly not for something like broadband or a motorway. Needless to say issues can be manufactured in politics when necessary, but of all the things to go messing around with, this referendum to deal with the most controversial of issues in Irish society, would be a disaster, especially after it was his predecessor Enda Kenny who established the Citizen’s Assembly and the sterling work done by the Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment.

So how about — wait for it — holding a general election on the same day as the abortion referendum. It seems a little crazy when you first consider it but adding together the set of circumstances that Leo Varadkar is currently dealing with, it starts to make a funny kind of sense the longer you ponder on it. It could also, another plus from his point of view, have the added bonus of somewhat sidelining the anti Repeal side of the argument. Obviously, he might argue, the double vote on the one day is not ideal but needs must. All he needs right now, though, is a valid, or valid enough, reason to throw us all into a general election campaign. Like I said, the temptation really must be great.