The calm before America's political storm

For all the cost, chaos, and bloodshed, Operation City Surge has yielded meagre results, and the frustration from hardliners is palpable, writes Marion McKeone

Manufacturing a crisis, and then demanding credit for fixing it, has long been a hallmark of Donald Trump’s presidency.

THE cascading crisis of leadership that triggered the killings of two US citizens by federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents came from the top.

Manufacturing a crisis, and then demanding credit for fixing it, has long been a hallmark of Donald Trump’s presidency.

But the piecemeal truce that restored relative calm to the streets of Minneapolis is a flimsy agreement, patched together by a directive that prohibits federal immigration agents’ engagement with peaceful protesters, coupled with vague promises to reduce the ranks of ICE agents and narrow the focus — for now — of the immigration crackdown.

It’s unlikely that border czar Tom Homan’s return from the sidelines will lead to a lasting change in Trump’s zero-tolerance immigration policy.

Last Saturday’s killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, by immigration enforcement agents was a tipping point that forced a recalibration, if not a reform, of the dragnet raids that sweep up entire neighbourhoods.

A vigil for Alex Pretti in Minneapolis on Wednesday. His killing by immigration enforcement agents was a tipping point that forced a recalibration, if not a reform, of the dragnet raids that sweep up entire neighbourhoods. Photo: AP/John Locher

The administration’s gleeful celebration of ICE’s month-long reign of terror in Minneapolis may have abated, but the Michael Bay-style videos celebrating the agents’ swaggering machismo remain on the department of homeland security website; slick two-minute productions set to pulsating rock music that revel in the terror and humiliation of their quarry.

Meanwhile, phone videos semaphore the horror of Pretti’s final moments around the globe, alongside the chaos, skittish thuggery, and the chilling triumphalism of his killers, who fist-bumped as he lay lifeless on the icy street.

Within an hour of his death, Stephen Miller, Trump’s powerful deputy chief of staff and the architect of his immigration policy; Kristi Noem, the secretary of homeland security; and Greg Bovino, the self-styled commander-at-large of Operation City Surge, were flooding the airwaves and online media outlets, depicting Pretti as a domestic terrorist who had planned to “massacre” law enforcement agents — lies that were endorsed and recirculated by Elon Musk and vice president JD Vance.

It was the same playbook used to vilify Renee Good.

Two weeks earlier, Miller and Vance’s claims that the 37-year-old mother-of-three tried to ram the ICE agent who shot her at point blank range were likewise contradicted by video footage. But there was a millisecond, a single frame of ambiguity that provided a fig leaf for squeamish Republicans.

Homeland security secretary Kristi Noem helped to flood the airwaves and online media outlets, after Pretti's killing, depicting him as a domestic terrorist who had planned to 'massacre' law enforcement agents — lies that were endorsed and recirculated by Elon Musk and vice president JD Vance. File photo: AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Pretti’s shooting allowed no such wiggle room.

With Homan and Noem careening into each other’s lanes, no clear leadership or co-ordination between ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) divisions, Bovino running a rogue operation, and Miller and Vance assuring agents they could act with “total immunity”, bloodshed was inevitable.

The ensuing trifecta of public outrage, donor fury, and stirrings of a GOP mutiny triggered an abrupt volte face — at least temporarily. Trump’s authoritarian impulses are soonest curbed by the threat of plummeting stock prices and personal standing.

Miller was forced to admit the agents who shot Pretti “may not have been following proper protocol”.

Bovino, who had travelled with his own camera crew, was summarily dispatched to his backwater post in California’s Central Valley, and banned from department of homeland security social media sites. Reporters were briefed on his imminent retirement.

For now, Noem is still the nominal head of the department of homeland security but, after a lengthy power struggle, Homan has regained control of immigration enforcement.

Notwithstanding his embroilment in an FBI $50,000 bribery sting, the change has been welcomed by congressional Republicans.

Gregory Bovino has been dispatched to his backwater post in California’s Central Valley, and banned from department of homeland security social media sites. Photo: Anthony Vazquez/Chicago Sun-Times via AP

Vance, who supported Miller and Noem’s push for a mass deportation dragnet that gave no quarter to the 3.6 million immigrants with temporary legal status, is unlikely to suffer any blowback.

During a press conference in Minneapolis on Thursday, Homan reiterated that ICE agents would be restricted to “targeted, strategic enforcement operations” within the city. An email obtained by Reuters, stipulating that agents could only target “aliens with a previous criminal history”, also warned them not to “communicate or engage with agitators”.

For all the cost, chaos and bloodshed, the hundreds of assaults and thousands of arrests, Operation City Surge has yielded meagre results. Department of homeland security data indicates that, during the month-long crackdown, just 13 migrants with criminal records were arrested.

The frustration of immigration hardliners such as Texas governor Greg Abbott and congressional Republicans facing re-election is palpable. They regard the securing of the US-Mexico border, where migrant crossings have ground to a standstill, as Trump’s biggest policy achievement.

Public sentiment

But the killings in Minneapolis have caused a shift in public sentiment. An Economist/YouGov poll shows support for ICE has dropped by 10 points since December.

The same poll shows 59% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance. More worryingly for the GOP, the biggest decline is amongst self-described independent voters who generally skew Republican.

Congressional Democrats thus far have failed show any leadership. Late on Thursday night, another government shutdown was averted after they agreed to a two-week funding package for the department of homeland security, pending negotiations about new restrictions on ICE’s activities.

Demonstrators protest outside the White House earlier this month against the ICE agent who fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis. Claims that she tried to ram the ICE agent were contradicted by video footage. Photo: AP/Jose Luis Magana

Meanwhile, the department of justice’s refusal to launch federal investigations into the killings of Pretti and Good, and ICE’s refusal to comply with federal judicial orders, has plunged the Minnesota’s US attorney’s office into chaos.

Six federal prosecutors resigned en masse after they were directed to launch a criminal investigation into Good’s partner instead of the ICE agent who killed her. More have followed. Currently, 35 of the 70 prosecutor positions are vacant.

On Thursday, the remaining prosecutors warned they would resign en masse over the refusal to launch a criminal investigation into Pretti’s death.

Meanwhile, Chief District Judge Patrick Schlitz warned that ICE has violated 96 court orders since the launch of its crackdown in Minnesota.

Outside Minnesota

Elsewhere in the US, at least 225 federal judges have issued orders in favour of civil rights groups such as the ACLU, who claimed ICE’s operation and detention policies are unconstitutional.

Some 20 states — including California, New York, Minnesota, and New Jersey — have filed multiple lawsuits challenging ICE operations in their states.

On Tuesday, Graeme Blair, a professor of political science at UCLA, published a report on Trump’s immigration enforcement policy for 2025. It claims the number of street arrests by ICE agents soared by 1,100%, an order of magnitude he describes as “a new phenomenon”.

ICE targets

Trump’s claims that the US had been invaded by millions of violent criminals from other countries are not borne out by federal statistics.

As of August 2024, FBI, ICE and department of homeland security records put the number of aliens with criminal records at 425,431. Fewer than 25% were convicted of violent offences.

According to federal records, there were 13,099 non-citizens convicted of murder charges on ICE’s “non-detained” deportation docket. Some of the convictions go back 40 years. 

A further 15,811 had been convicted of rape or sexual assault, and 62,321 have been convicted of assault. The remaining convictions are mostly driving offences, drug offences, and non-violent theft and fraud offences.

All told, ICE is targetting fewer than 100,000 aliens with violent criminal records. Even with mass deportations of asylum seekers and migrants with temporary protected status, Trump’s goal of deporting a million immigrants a year is unachievable.

Worse to come?

Democrats and voting rights activists share concerns that, while the immediate crisis may have abated, Minnesota is a testing ground for a far greater show of authoritarian force later this year.

Mark Elias, a leading voting rights lawyer, and historian Timothy Snyder are amongst several lawyers and political experts who have warned that Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act ahead of the 2026 elections in a bid to suppress voter turnout in blue states.

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Michael Waldman, the director of the NYU Brennan Center for Justice, has warned that Pam Bondi’s demand for the Minnesota voter registration rolls and Wednesday’s FBI raid of the Fulton County election offices is laying the groundwork for interference in the 2026 elections.

Steve Simon, the Minnesota secretary of state, says he’s planning for direct federal interference.

With Minnesota in the eye of the storm at the moment, a much greater turmoil could be playing out on the horizon, ready to reveal itself to the American public in a matter of months.