Hail, rain or shine: The rise of weather apps and our obsession with forecasting

If looking out a window won’t provide enough information on the weather, several apps are at our fingertips to help

A wide variety of weather apps will give you an idea of when it is not only best to venture out but also where to venture to, preferably without getting drenched.

Looking out a window may be the obvious thing to do to see what the weather is like.

But if you fancy a more in-depth weather view, you could also cast your eye across a wide variety of apps that will give you an idea of when it is not only best to venture out but also where to venture to, preferably without getting drenched.

But as anybody who has been badly let down by weather apps knows, they are fallible.

Even Homer nods. Monday last week in Ireland was a case in point.

Forecasts days beforehand said there would be sun and a zero chance of rain.

Instead, as if the weather gods connived to remind us of their celestial contempt for the best of our earthly forecasting efforts, it poured... a lot.

Ireland’s best-known weather enthusiast Alan O’Reilly has a simple explanation to soothe the righteous ire of anybody let down by apps.

“The clue is in the word ‘forecast’,” he says bluntly.

“They are all pretty good at what they do but they are just forecasts, not statements of absolute fact.”

Alan O'Reilly of Carlow Weather: The clue is in the word ‘forecast’. Picture: Mary Browne

The man behind the Carlow Weather app has his own go-to app — Meteoblue.

“I like it because it is based on a lot of different weather forecast models and it scales all the forecasts according to a predictability rating.

“If most of the models used agree on what the weather is likely to be on any given day, Meteoblue scores them.

“The higher the score, the higher the accuracy.”

His other favourite app is the Met Éireann app.

“They don’t always get everything right, but I would regard them as the best for anyone in Ireland, especially for their two-day forecasts.”

Alan Hally is another person who knows a thing or two about weather forecasting. He is also one man most likely to have a direct line into the National Hurricane Center in Miami saved into his phone.

As Met Éireann’s forecasting services manager, he forecasts for the Government and State agencies.

He is also a research meteorologist at the national forecaster and before he joined it, he was a researcher at Météo France’s research centre in Toulouse.

As well as issuing forecasts, he oversees the operation of Met Éireann’s massive computers which churn out results of trillions of split-second calculations.

Predictably, he swears by the Met Éireann weather app and, with good reason, regards it as the most reliable one for Ireland.

It is not hard to understand why, when you look under the proverbial hood of the app, and glimpse at what goes into the simplified-down information in the weather symbols and other graphics you see on the app.

Behind each of its daily forecasts is the work of largely faceless weather observers, Met Éireann forecasters and researchers, national and international scientists, and satellites.

Observations on pressure, wind, humidity, and temperature are routinely taken in places such as Valentia and our airports as well as by around 100 or so volunteer weather observers dotted around the country.

Mayo postmistress Maureen Sweeney, whose storm forecast in 1944 famously changed the timing of the D-Day landings.

They are the modern day versions of the weather observer and Mayo postmistress Maureen Sweeney, whose storm forecast in 1944 famously changed the timing of the D-Day landings.

The then 21-year-old’s correct forecast about an incoming severe Atlantic storm led to D-Day being staged a day later than planned, and ultimately helped to determine the outcome of the war.

As well as observers, there are also the experts at Met Éireann and some 200 scientists based across 26 countries.

Information is also being captured by polar orbiting satellites 200km above Earth and geostationary satellites 36,000km above Earth.

Despite all the expertise, Mr Hally is quick to urge people to manage their expectations.

“There’s an inherent uncertainty in the atmosphere.

“Depending on the feature you’re talking about, you can either get a very good degree of certainty or not.

With times of high pressure, for example, people can be pretty certain about the forecast. But if we’re in a kind of a thunderstorm, that’s where the forecast may change over the period of six to 12 hours and, again, that’s just because of the nature of the event.” 

Of available apps, there are a small number of firm favourites, depending on personal experience of them.

They include Apple’s default and few-frills Weather app and AccuWeather, which boasts of being the best there is.

There is also the UK’s MetOffice app, which is surprisingly accurate on Irish weather.

A lot also depends on a person’s hobbies or occupation.

A kitesurfer or windsurfer might swear by the Windy or WindFinder apps, while a seasoned hiker might opt for WeatherBug, which tech review site CNET rated as a great app “for outdoorsy folks”.

That said, given a recent upgrade of the Met Éireann app, more people might now be inclined to use the national forecaster’s new Mountains Forecast dropdown widgets.

These widgets provide local 10-day forecasts for mountainous locations on a province by province basis.

The forecast on Thursday for the area around Knockboy, Co Cork’s highest mountain, was spot on at 10.42am, said Kerry farmer Denis Tangney.

However, there was no mention of the fog that shrouded the area at the time.

“My favourite app, YR, doesn’t tell me if there is fog either,” he said.

“But the mountain reading for Knockboy was accurate. I need accurate forecasts because as a sheep farmer, I could be walking for hours.

“From experience of using YR, it is just excellent for where I am.”

Farmers like him have a good excuse to be obsessive about the weather.

While many also favour the YR app, the Irish Farmers Journal has recommended WeatherLive and the more niche app, Rainlogger.

Random test

A random test held with the help of nine people around Ireland threw up just a few relatively minor glitches in the short-range forecasts of selected apps.

Their forecasts for 3pm on Wednesday were checked the day before to see how accurate their predictions would be.

Most got it spot on all the time, especially for Drumcondra in Dublin, the Wicklow seaside resort of Bray, and Balla in Co Mayo, while others did not.

The Apple Weather app said at 3pm it was cloudy in Letterkenny, Co Donegal, and even warned people to expect rain by 4pm when, at the time, the town was swathed in sun with few clouds.

Meanwhile, YR said it was raining and overcast, while AccuWeather said it was also cloudy and would be raining by exactly 3.38pm... when it did not.

WeatherBug also had the town as cloudy, but nevertheless “ideal weather conditions for outdoor exercise”.

YR fared better for Ballybunion, Co Kerry, where it said it was cloudy at 3pm, and a swimmer there confirmed it was indeed cloudy, and dry.

On Tuesday, Meteoblue predicted it would be mostly cloudy on Wednesday at 3pm in Blackpool, Cork City, but it turned out to be, according to our intrepid observer there, mostly sunny.

In fairness to the app, it had warned on Tuesday its prediction for Wednesday only had a 78% predictability rating, meaning there was a fair amount of room for error.

Met Éireann does not do forecasts for Blackpool, while AccuWeather, the self-proclaimed best experts, and YR, also said the place would be mostly or all cloudy, when it was not.

Apps can be quirky things too.

The Apple Weather app gives readings for Ballybrittas in Co Laois but not for Ballybrit in Galway. However, it does give a reading for Baile an Bhriotaihg.

The same app changes Carraig na Bhfear to Carrignavar while the Met Éireann app recognises only Carrignavar.

Names aside, every app’s forecast for the Co Cork village correctly predicted it would be cloudy there at 3pm on Wednesday.

While the Met Éireann app does not give forecasts for either Ballybrit or Baile an Bhriotaihg, it does give them for the biggest attraction there at this time of the year — the Galway Racecourse.

You can easily while away a wet afternoon swiping through the bells and whistles offered by most apps, some of which may appear irrelevant.

Hurricane warnings

Hurricane warnings on apps are a case in point.

On Tuesday, the nearest hurricane to this reporter was around 897km away — which was reassuring.

However, as Met Éireann’s Mr Hally points out, they may well be far away but they can have an impact on Ireland.

“We’re just started into the hurricane season in the Atlantic,” he said.

“They are born off the west coast of Africa, and they trundle across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean and the United States.

“But after that, what they usually do is pivot towards us across the Atlantic.

“When that happens, and if one of them is severe enough, we will have telephone calls with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, and then our colleagues in the UK Met Office as well.

“This is because something like that, depending on its severity, can have quite large impacts for Ireland.”

He cites the devastating impact of Hurricane Ophelia on Ireland in 2017, when three people died in separate incidents as it hit the country, felling trees and causing widespread structural damage across the country.

Not keeping too close an eye on those hurricane warnings or any other weather app bells and whistles is Colin James.

For one of the driving forces behind an early flood warning system in Midleton, Co Cork, he could be forgiven for having every weather app known to mankind on his phone but he does not.

“I live in an area where I can have four seasons in one day,” said the affable New Zealander.

Instead of apps, he has a very old-fashioned solution to checking the weather if, for example, he fancies a round of golf on the course next door.

“I just look out my window,” he said with a chuckle.

Weather Apps

Met Éireann 

The only weather app that concentrates entirely on Ireland, the Met Éireann ad-free app packs a lot in as standard, and free of charge. This includes four days of national forecasts, a two-day provincial forecast, and a seven-day local forecast. You also get sea area forecasts, coastal reports, and inland lake forecasts. A recent upgrade now gives mountain forecasts divided into provincial widgets with drop-down menus for the mountain you are on or plan to be on. You also get a variety of weather warnings, including small craft warnings and blight advisories.

AccuWeather

This app boasts it uses 170+ forecasting models to bring the “largest and best collection of real time data”. On the free version, you get a decent rundown on the weather in your area, with hourly breakdowns. You also get an hourly temperature graph but hourly rain, air quality, humidity, UV index, wind, or cloud cover graphs have to be paid for. You get maps with moving clouds and rain, blight warnings (from Met Éireann), lightning alerts, weather news and videos, and government alerts. You have to pay to go ad-free and get a few more bells and whistles.

WeatherBug 

After your basic now, hourly, and 10-day forecasts, there is an outdoor sports tab on how suitable the weather is for outdoor sports, based on data from Earth Networks, which describes itself as “the world’s largest proprietary weather observation and lightning detection networks”. You also get an air quality map, and a lightning map, which tells you where the nearest strike has been. You also get a wind map and a map showing the locations of the greatest risks of a fire. You also get a hurricane map. You have to pay to remove ads.

Apple Weather 

This is a few-frills but slick weather app that quickly tells you what you want to know about temperature, rain, sun, and wind. Forecasts are led with those for the next hour, and you have the option to be notified about severe weather, rain, and snow. Then you have hourly forecasts, followed by a rain map, as you scroll down the list of easy-to-understand panels. Apple states “severe weather data is available from national weather services” for “most countries and regions in Europe”. Apple also uses “national weather services” for next-hour rain forecasts and notifications. You then scroll down to a 10-day forecast and small panels on wind, UV index, visibility, and humidity.

YR 

Fans of YR swear by its location-based forecasts and easy-to-figure-out layout. Its homepage just shows temperature, whether or not it is raining or sunny or how much of a breeze there is and a brief reference to what it will be like later in the day. You have the option to look at a 10-day forecast, and then “other conditions”. These detail basic weather observations nearby, concerning UV forecasts, temperature, rain, and wind throughout the day from main observation positions, such as Dublin Airport and the Valentia Observatory in Kerry. Like the Met Éireann and Apple Weather apps, it is very straightforward and has few frills.