Figures show Government faces its 'ultimate housing test' this year, experts say

Figures from the Central Statistics Office show just 36,284 new homes were built last year. File photo

The Government faces its “ultimate housing test” to have at least 20,000 new homes completed in the first half of this year if it is to make up for falling far short of the target it set for 2025, according to housing experts who were reacting to figures from the Central Statistics Office showing just 36,284 new homes were built last year. 

While that is a 20.4% increase on 2024 and the highest number since the series began in 2011, it is significantly short of the 41,000 the Government had originally targeted for 2025. It is also way off the 50,000-60,000 that numerous experts have said are needed to meet demand as prices climb ever higher.

Deloitte chief economist, Kate English, said the first six months of the year will be crucial in gauging how much progress is being made on housing.

“There needs to be at least 20,000 completions [to June 2026] to be on track to meet Government housing targets for this year,” she said.

If we don’t see an improvement in the first half of 2026, then it’s certain that 2026 will be another year of missed Government targets. 

"We need to see a rise in both housing commencements and completions figures if there is to be any confidence from people in Ireland.” 

AIB chief economist David McNamara said the uptick in housebuilding last year was a welcome sign of momentum and further policy changes should “begin to bear fruit” in the years to come.

“With substantial public funding in place and policy changes on the way to speed up infrastructure delivery, the only question remains whether the construction sector has the capacity to ramp up output to the 50-60k per annum level required to meet demand,” he said.

In the Government’s new housing plan unveiled in November, it set a target of building 300,000 homes through to 2030. It is clear from the 2025 figures that output will have to ramp up significantly to reach this goal. However, annual targets for housing delivery that had featured in previous plans were removed.

It came after all estimates pointed towards the house building figures for 2025 missing the originally set target of 41,000 by a significant margin.

Minister for housing James Browne said the CSO figures are “very welcome” and signal a “clear ramp-up in supply”.

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“There are many pointers to progress but we are not complacent,” he said. “We have a new Housing Action Plan. We have record State funding. We have increasing confidence within the private sector.” 

In the Dáil, Tánaiste Simon Harris defended the numbers for 2025 as exceeding expectations of the likes of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Central Bank. He claimed there is "momentum" in the housing sector. Mr Harris accepted there is a "housing emergency" but said increased supply is a positive sign.

Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O'Callaghan accused the Government of "running away" from its 41,000 figure because its housing plan is "in tatters". "This isn't an academic debate about numbers," Mr O'Callaghan said.

It's about people in their 20s, their 30s and their 40s, still living in their childhood bedrooms, feeling hopeless and helpless because their lives are passing them by. They're missing out on milestones, relationships, career opportunities, and even starting families.

“It's about the growing number of elderly renters who are at risk of homelessness. It's about the 5,321 children who are growing up now without a home, all because successive government have doubled down on failure.” 

People Before Profit leader Richard Boyd Barrett said the Government "doesn't have a hope in hell" of hitting its own housing targets. He said 32,000 planning permissions were being "sat on" and the Government is not adequately funding infrastructure to enable housing.