ieExplains: What does the Jim Gavin scandal mean for the presidential election?

Jim Gavin had initially said he had no recollection of the tenant and, at an RTÉ debate on Sunday, he said: 'If it happened, I’m sorry it happened.'

The exit of Jim Gavin from the presidential election has upended what was a fairly dull race, leaving just two candidates vying for votes ahead of October 24.

The unprecedented move by Mr Gavin leaves Fianna Fáil’s electoral hopes in tatters, with the party now expected to pick up the pieces in the hours before Budget 2026.

But what exactly happened, and where do we go from here?

Why did Mr Gavin stand down?

While he did not explicitly give a reason for ceasing his campaign in his statement, it all surrounds the controversy about Mr Gavin failing to repay €3,300 of overpaid rent to a former tenant.

The controversy first emerged on Saturday, with reports in the Irish Independent surrounding Mr Gavin’s non-repayment of the overpaid rent at a property he owned in Smithfield.

The tenant in question alleged they contacted Mr Gavin repeatedly seeking repayment, with emails, phone calls, and legal letters being sent to the Fianna Fáil candidate.

Mr Gavin had initially said he had no recollection of the tenant and, at an RTÉ debate on Sunday, he said: “If it happened, I’m sorry it happened."

It later emerged that the tenant had contacted Fianna Fáil with evidence of the overpayment, with public expenditure minister Jack Chambers saying this documentation “contradicted” Mr Gavin’s account.

At 10.30pm on Sunday night, Mr Gavin formally withdrew from the election. In a statement, he said he made a “mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself”.

“Taking all these considerations on board, I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family,” he said.

What has been the reaction?

There is fury within the ranks of Fianna Fáil, with backbenchers angrily hitting out at the process which led to Mr Gavin’s selection and the campaign he ran.

TDs have taken aim at Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Mr Chambers, with one backbencher saying there is now a “scent of blood in the air”. Another TD said Mr Gavin’s campaign was “fucked anyway” even without the controversy over not paying back his former tenant.

“It was appalling judgement to select him,” they said.

While TDs and senators are due to hold their weekly parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday, some are agitating for an earlier convening to discuss the fallout from Mr Gavin’s campaign.

The two remaining candidates in the election, Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys, both paid tribute to Mr Gavin.

What happens now in the presidential election?

While Mr Gavin has stood down his campaign, his name will still be on the ballot come October 24.

It is now a direct head-to-head battle between Ms Connolly and Ms Humphreys, with the only thing certain being that Ireland’s 10th president will be a woman.

Questions will turn to whether or not Fianna Fáil will directly back one of the remaining candidates. While MEP Barry Andrews has confirmed he will vote for Ms Humphreys, it is unclear if the party will formally endorse the Fine Gael candidate.

Some backbenchers have privately railed against any suggestion they will endorse Ms Humphreys. “There’d be resistance to endorsing Heather,” one TD said.

What happens within Fianna Fáil now?

The next steps will come on Wednesday evening, when TDs and senators meet for the first time since Mr Gavin withdrew.

It’s likely that the Taoiseach and Mr Chambers will come under strong scrutiny by backbench TDs over Mr Gavin, given their instrumental role in getting him over the line to be the party nominee.

While there are rumours swirling of a possible leadership heave, others have come to the defence of Mr Martin.

One TD played down the prospect of a heave, but did acknowledge Mr Martin’s standing has been “weakened” by the controversy. “He’s burnt a lot of political capital and goodwill over this,” they said.

What questions are outstanding for Fianna Fáil?

One key question for the party will be why it released a statement from Mr Gavin last Saturday saying he had no “recollection or records” of a rent dispute.

It was likely this issue, when documentation was provided to the party, that pushed his candidacy over the edge and made it impossible for him to continue.