Call for Government to republish summer budget projections after US-EU trade deal

Finance minister Paschal Donohoe said that re-issuing the summer economic statement would not make sense as it is merely a statement of policy and not a prescriptive set of accounts

Social Democrats TD Cian O'Callaghan: 'It is less than a week since the Government published its summer economic statement, using an assumption of no tariffs. This was despite the dogs on the street being aware that a 10% tariff rate was the best possible outcome.' File photo: Leah Farrell/© RollingNews.ie

The Government has been pushed to republish its summer budget projections in light of a US-EU agreement on tariffs.

The summer economic statement published last week confirmed the total size of Budget 2026 would be €9.4bn, but was based on a 10% tariff framework. In light of the 15% agreement, Social Democrats finance spokesman Cian O’Callaghan said that the Government must re-draft the document.

“I welcome that a deal has been done which avoids a catastrophic trade war. However, there is much that is still unclear about what has been agreed. What is beyond doubt is that a 15% tariff rate will be very damaging for many Irish businesses.

“It is less than a week since the Government published its summer economic statement, using an assumption of no tariffs. This was despite the dogs on the street being aware that a 10% tariff rate was the best possible outcome.

“The Government must now publish an updated summer economic statement which outlines the impact of a 15% tariff rate on the national finances and the budgetary calculus.”

In the document itself, the authors warn that "if there is a deterioration in the tariff landscape, Government will recalibrate its fiscal strategy — reducing the quantum of the budgetary package — in order to ensure that the public finances remain on a sustainable trajectory" but did not give details of alternative scenarios. 

The document says that while the economy is in good condition, the public finances "are not as healthy as the headline figures suggest".

"While the headline budgetary position is in surplus, this is almost entirely due to a handful of large corporate taxpayers.

"Over the medium term, structural changes – an ageing population, the phasing out of fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas emitters, the need to facilitate the digital transition, and the fragmentation of economic activity along geopolitical lines – will have profound implications for the Irish economy and for the public finances."

Finance minister Paschal Donohoe said that re-issuing the statement would not make sense as it is merely a statement of policy and not a prescriptive set of accounts.

"The department undertakes two sets of forecasts each year – both of which are aligned to the European fiscal cycle (spring in the annual progress report and autumn at budget time).

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"While the baseline tariff rates have increased, it is important to look at the agreement in the round. Indeed, the updated US-EU tariff arrangements will also provide greater levels of certainty, which will help support economic activity."

Labour leader Ivana Bacik, meanwhile, called for "proactive" measures to protect jobs.

“There’s no question that this will have consequences. We’re calling on the Government to be proactive. They must engage with the Irish businesses impacted to ensure jobs are protected and new market opportunities pursued.