Politicians are left surveying the lay of the new land
A number of TDs have been left disappointed by the constituency boundary review, which saw the addition of 14 seats and the transfer of thousands of voters to new constituencies. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA
The constituency changes published by the Electoral Commission have been digested and political parties have already begun strategising for the future.
A number of TDs have been left disappointed by the review, and the various political headquarters are already assessing the damage and potential gains. Prior to the commission publishing the boundary changes, Fine Gael was nervous about how the redraw may influence the decision of TDs on whether they would run again.
Leo Varadkar’s party is already on the back foot with several well-known politicians, who would have comfortably held their seats, announcing they will not be running again in the next General Election. These include Kerry TD Brendan Griffin, Carlow-Kilkenny TD John Paul Phelan, Cork North-West TD Michael Creed, Cork East TD David Stanton and Donegal TD Joe McHugh.
And now that the dust has settled on the constituency review, it is expected more Fine Gael TDs will be considering their futures as a result of poor polling performances and against the Sinn Féin surge. It is also anticipated that a few senior members of the party who have dedicated their lives as public representatives are not going to seek re-election.
The review is a blow to Wexford TD Paul Kehoe with areas containing almost 50,000 people around Gorey and Enniscorthy, where the former junior minister for defence minister is based, transferred into the new Wexford-Wicklow constituency.
The changes will also place further pressure on Charlie Flanagan after the split of the Laois-Offaly constituency, as it’s expected Sinn Féin will run a second candidate alongside Brian Stanley who topped the poll in the last election.
Although she said she has no regrets, it’s hard to believe former Cabinet minister Regina Doherty isn’t frustrated, having moved from her former territory of Meath East, which has gained an extra seat, to Dublin Fingal West which now has three seats. It means Doherty will have to battle it out against Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly who is expected to bring in a running mate.
In Clare, it’s not yet known if Joe Carey will run again in the next election having taken time off after becoming ill in March.
Fine Gael does have a number of opportunities, with an opening in Tipperary South for Senator Gareth Ahearn to take a seat, now the county has been split. Sources within the party are hoping former TD Kate O’Connell will run again in Dublin Bay South, with party members stating “she would walk it home".
The party is also hoping to win seats in Offaly and are looking at adding a running mate for Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys in Cavan-Monaghan.
For Fianna Fáil, party sources have said they are overall happy with the outcome of the electoral watchdog’s review. The aim is to hold onto all seats currently while work has begun behind the scenes to identify areas where the party is hoping they can make gains.
With the creation of the new Wexford-Wicklow constituency, Senator Malcolm Byrne is at an advantage given he is the only Oireachtas member representing the area. The party is also “targeting” Mayo which now has an additional seat.
However, former TD and one-time mooted the next leader of the party, Lisa Chambers has said she has her eyes set on running in the European elections next year.
Micheál Martin’s party is also weighing up their options to run candidates in Kildare North, Galway East and Meath West.
Despite an extra seat being added to Cork South-Central, home to the Tánaiste as well as Finance Minister Michael McGrath, there is no intention to run a third candidate in the constituency at this time, according to Fianna Fáil sources.
The boundary redraw has also caused a headache for Fianna Fáil in the Cork North-West constituency, with the move of more than 20,000 people from Ballincollig to the Cork North-Central constituency which will greatly impact Aindrias Moynihan. Jackie Cahill will have a tough battle to retain his seat in North Tipperary alongside former Labour leader Alan Kelly, and Independent TD Michael Lowry.
It’s expected, given the success of Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne in South Tipperary, the party will run a second candidate in the North. The transfer of part of county Kilkenny to North Tipperary will bolster Kelly’s voter base.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly may face additional difficulties with the removal of the more rural parts of Wicklow, which have since been added into a new three-seater Wicklow-Wexford.
These rural areas of the constituency helped push him over the line in 2020.
Fianna Fáil sources have said these are the “realistic challenges” the party faces and also noted current agriculture minister Charlie McConalgue will be under pressure to retain his seat in Donegal.
It’s no secret that the Green Party is well aware of the fight they will face ahead of the next election as the party continues to poll poorly.
However, extra seats added in Media Minister Catherine Martin and Children’s Minister Roderic O’Gorman’s constituencies will likely cushion them when voters hit the ballot boxes, possibly in November as mooted privately by many Cabinet ministers.
But Green TDs in vulnerable positions as a result of the redraws include Steven Matthews in Wicklow and junior minister Joe O’Brien following the split up of Dublin Fingal.
Sinn Fein will welcome the additional 14 new Dáil seats and the party will learn from its mistake in 2020 when it didn’t run enough candidates. Mary Lou McDonald’s party clearly will gain further advantage following the boundary redraws.
The main Opposition party will aim to add a TD in every one of the four additional three-seat constituencies and will tackle the new five-seat constituencies, especially in Dublin.
Party sources also said they will target Cork South-Central, adding a running made with Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire. They will also aim to gain advantages in Dublin West and are thinking about taking a third seat in Donegal.
The party that appears to have suffered greatly following the Electoral Commission's report is the Labour Party. Duncan Smith will struggle to retain his seat as he will move to Dublin Fingal which is a three-seater, and will be up against Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien, Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell, and a Sinn Féin candidate.
Labour TD for Cork East Seán Sherlock has seen his base of Mallow moved into Cork North-Central. And it’s unclear whether former Labour leader Brendan Howlin will run again. The party’s leader Ivana Bacik will also struggle in Dublin Bay South.
There has been little change for the Social Democrats with Cork-South West remaining unchanged which will be welcome news for leader Holly Cairns. However, it’s unsure whether Catherine Murphy will run again, an extra seat in Kildare North may be the deciding factor on whether she will seek reelection.
Gary Gannon will be under pressure to retain his seat in Dublin Central as it’s expected Mary Lou McDonald will bring in a running mate.
Jennifer Whitmore is considered to be in a comfortable position in Wicklow and Cian O’Callaghan is relieved his voter base in Dublin Bay North stayed intact. Despite changes to Dublin North-West, Roisin Shortall will be satisfied.
For smaller parties such as People Before Profit, Aontú and Independent TDs, the increase in the number of three-seat constituencies from 9 to 13 will likely favour incumbent TDs and more established voices as well as bigger parties, which will serve as a blow to many.
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