Electoral Commission review: New constituency carve-ups explained
Matt the Thresher bar and restaurant in Birdhill. Three electoral divisions (EDs) — Birdhill, Kilcomenty and Newport — have been transferred into Tipperary North.
Tipperary's population grew to 167,895 in 2022, an important factor in the Commission’s decision to divide it into two new three-seat constituencies — Tipperary North and Tipperary South.
The Commission said there was a ‘widely held view” within submissions that if a constituency split was to be proposed it should be on a north-south basis, similar to its state prior to 2013.
The breach of the Tipperary boundary by the Limerick City constituency, which was also the subject of numerous submissions, has been removed with the three electoral divisions (EDs) — Birdhill, Kilcomenty and Newport — transferred into Tipperary North.
Although the breach by Limerick City has been removed, the Commission recommended a new county boundary breach of Kilkenny.
It will see the transfer to Tipperary North of 13 EDs from western Kilkenny with a population of 6,431, the largest of which is Urlingford.
The new Tipperary North constituency will have a population of 87,799 while Tipperary South will have a population of 86,527.
Perhaps most unexpectedly, the Commission recommended the formation of a new constituency now known as Wicklow-Wexford.
The move means there will be three separate constituencies across the two counties in addition to some significant consequences.
It was a decision made following “extensive deliberations” after the Commission found that the constituencies of Wexford and Wicklow had a combined population sufficient to justify the allocation of 11 seats.
The new formation however means that Wicklow constituency and Wexford constituency will each lose one seat, both becoming four-seaters in the next election.
The new constituency will cover 41 Electoral Divisions with a population of 49,743 in North Wexford in addition to 31 Electoral Divisions with a population of 35,708 from south Wicklow.
This creation will have significant implications for TDs based in the Wicklow Constituency.
The move is bound to cause controversy as five sitting TDs based in north Wicklow including two Ministers – Fine Gael TD Simon Harris and Fianna Fáil TD Stephen Donnelly - will have to fight it out for a reduced four seats.
A constituency since 1948, Carlow-Kilkenny will remain in large part united.
Its population has grown by 9,964 (6.4%) since 2016 to 166,128 in 2022.
The constituency which contains the entirety of both counties lost some of Kilkenny in the redraw which saw 13 electoral divisions in the west of the county transferred to the newly formed North Tipperary constituency.
Despite losing 6,431 people, Carlow-Kilkenny will remain a five-seater with a population of 159,697.
The Commission said it considered dividing the constituency into two three-seat constituencies based on their respective counties.
However, Carlow’s population of 61,968 is insufficient to support a standalone constituency, and this approach would give rise to breaches of the boundaries of adjacent counties.
With Sinn Féin’s sole candidate, Kathleen Funchion receiving just shy of 24% of first preference votes in 2020, form.
The addition of a fifth seat in Dublin West will likely allow all of its incumbent candidates to breathe a sigh of relief.
The constituency of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has has increased rapidly in population in recent years, with the area now having 137,360 people in it. This is a 10.8% increase in population compared to 2016.
The electoral areas transferred from Dublin North-West – The Ward and Blanchardstown-Abbotstown - are quite small, with just an extra 2,000 people being added into Dublin West.
Mr Varadkar’s party will now look for him to deliver a second seat in the constituency, with his likely running mate being Senator Emer Currie.
Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly, who topped the poll in 2020, will also likely have a running mate. Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers will hope to retain his seat, alongside the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman.
However, Mr O’Gorman may face more difficulties in getting over the line due to the current unpopularity of the Green Party.
After a brief stint as a combined constituency during the 2020 election, Offaly and Laois have one again been split into two separate three-seater constituencies.
Both of these constituencies are solely made up of their individual counties, with no breaches into separate counties unlike the previous iteration. Parts previously hived off into Kildare South, including Portarlington, have now returned to within the county boundaries.
While Barry Cowen would be a shoe-in to take a seat in Offaly, there is some speculation that his heart is set on Brussels and that he will be a candidate in the 2024 European elections for Fianna Fáil.
Independent TD Carol Nolan will be looking to retain her seat in Offaly, while both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael will be looking to get a candidate over the line.
Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley is likely to do well again in Laois, with some concerns being flagged about Fine Gael’s Charlie Flanagan’s chances. Fianna Fáil will hope to retain junior minister Seán Fleming’s seat in the constituency.
Two new constituencies have been created in Dublin Fingal, with the former five-seater being split into two separate three-seaters.
Fingal East is the more urban half of the constituency, including the towns of Swords, Malahide, Donabate and Portmarnock.
The other half of the constituency, Fingal West, is much more rural but does still contain the towns of Balbriggan, Rush and Lusk.
The change here is significant, with the change to three-seaters making it easier for the three big parties to win seats. Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien is likely to hold on, due to his base in Fingal East, while Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly will be moved into Fingal West.
Smaller parties will now face an uphill battle trying to take a seat in the two Fingal constituencies, particularly Labour’s Duncan Smith, who narrowly won the fifth seat in 2020.
The changes will also give Sinn Féin a chance to pick up a seat in Fingal East, while Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell is likely to hold on to his seat.
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