Government could call a general election in November to benefit from budget bounce

Senior Coalition sources tell the 'Irish Examiner' a snap election could follow swiftly after October’s expected giveaway budget

One key consideration for the Coalition in terms of election timing is that Sinn Féin is consistently polling as the country’s most popular party. Stock picture

Government ministers are already discussing the possibility of an early election, with senior sources saying it could be as early as November 24.

Several ministers and senior coalition sources have told the Irish Examiner an election could follow quickly after October’s expected giveaway budget.

An election does not legally have to happen until March 2025 and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar previously said there were no plans for one in 2023. However, in recent days, rumours of an early election this year have been gathering momentum in Leinster House.

With a major boundary redraw coming in July, which will see an extra 18 to 20 seats added to Dáil Éireann, Government figures are keen to “block and stymie” any advantage such an increase may hand to Sinn Féin, which is now polling consistently as the country’s most popular party.

Rationale behind the date 

Among Government TDs and ministers, there is a desire to benefit from a post-budget multi-billion euro cost-of-living splurge.

The belief in a late November election is based on the premise that some of the budgetary cost-of-living measures would have kicked in and there is no appetite to call an election in January or February, when the weather tends to be at its worst.

The Government press secretary said yesterday that there are “no plans for an election this year”. Yet privately, senior coalition sources have made clear it is very much an open question and TDs are preparing their local operations, should the decision to go to the people be made.

“It is very possible,” one Fianna Fáil minister said, pointing to increased tensions within the coalition.

We are into the second half of the coalition, where decisions need to happen and promises made will inevitably be broken. That could spell trouble. 

Indeed, senior sources close to the coalition leaders said if there is insufficient progress made under the Programme for Government it is more likely they will go early.

“Certainly no decisions have been made and so much can happen before then. A lot of things to achieve in the programme for government,” said another senior Government source.

Sinn Féin's poll ratings

In the 2019 local and European elections, Sinn Féin suffered heavy losses, losing 78 council seats and seeing its number of MEPs drop from three to one. 

Yet, should it deliver on its current and consistent poll ratings of above 30%, the party could expect to see a significant increase in councillor numbers.

This would also see Sinn Féin in the driving seat in the next Seanad, as councillors are among the key electors to the Upper House.

Party bosses have indicated that preparations for selection conventions will begin as soon as the boundary redraw is published, in order to be ready in case of an early election.

At the next general election a 40% gender quota will apply, forcing the larger parties to ensure more gender-balanced tickets. 

Sources have also pointed to the positive state of finances of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil as a reason to consider an early election.

According to latest published accounts, Fine Gael posted a surplus of €1.3m in 2021 compared to €340,000 in 2020, while Fianna Fáil posted a surplus of €1.1m in 2021 compared with a €1m deficit in 2020.