Daniel McConnell: Micheál Martin now the most popular leader in the country

Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar and Mary Lou McDonald: Positive news for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael while Sinn Féin drop. Picture: Leah Farrell 

Taoiseach Micheál Martin is the most popular leader in the country, according to the latest Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times.

Who would have thought it?

It is significant as Martin has for many years languished as one of the least popular leaders in such opinion polls.

Now he is more popular than Eamon Ryan, Leo Varadkar and even Mary Lou McDonald.

His party too has seen a steady resurgence in its popularity since its lowest point about 12 months ago.

According to the poll, Mr Martin has seen an eight-point jump in his satisfaction ratings to 51% while Tánaiste Leo Varadkar’s personal rating also increases to 48%.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has seen her rating recede marginally to 42% while there has been a sharp drop for Green leader Eamon Ryan, who also sees his party’s numbers fall.

Significantly, on 23%, Fianna Fáil has also overtaken Mr Varadkar’s Fine Gael who are now a point behind.

Whereas Mr Varadkar had all the momentum in the early stages of this government, the reverse is now true.

All of this comes off the back of a prolonged period of relative success for Martin as Taoiseach.

Gone are the rocky and chaos-ridden days of the start of his government and his position as leader of his party has never been more secure.

According to the poll, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have made up some ground on what had appeared to be a runaway Sinn Féin train.

Despite losing some ground, Mary Lou McDonald’s party still holds a 10-point gap over Fianna Fáil and remains on course to be the lead party in the next government.

As the poll shows, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have gained ground on Sinn Féin since December.

The full state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is as follows: Sinn Féin, 33%  (down two); Fianna Fáil, 23%  (up three); Fine Gael, 22% (up two); Green Party, 3% (down two); Labour, 4% (no change); and Independents/others, 15% (no change).

Among the Independents and smaller parties, the results are as follows: Social Democrats, 2% (no change); Solidarity-People Before Profit, 1% (down one); Aontú, 1% (no change); and Independents, 10% (down one). Rounding affects the totals.

Despite being overtaken by Fianna Fáil marginally, Mr Varadkar will be somewhat contented by the arrest in the decline in his party’s support which had been on a continued downward party since June 2020.

There is increased agitation among Fine Gael and his grip on his party is nowhere near as strong as it was prior to the 2020 General Election.

While it is always dangerous to read too much into one poll, this poll does suggest a plateauing of Sinn Féin support and means the make-up of the next government cannot be taken as a foregone conclusion.

The party that must worry most about this poll is the Green Party, the smallest of the three parties in government.

The poll is the second Ipsos/MRBI poll in a row to register a drop in support for Eamon Ryan’s party which are now at just 3%, down from 7% last autumn.

This poll, like others taken in recent weeks, show there certainly has been no ‘Bacik bounce’ for the Labour Party remains unchanged but it is early days for their new leader.

Ivana Bacik has promised to broaden her party’s appeal and regain those who have abandoned Labour wholesale since 2016.