Russian invasion of Ukraine is 'now the expectation', says Simon Coveney

Mr Coveney, who is at the Munich Security Conference with other world leaders, said the mood there is "very pessimistic".

A Russian invasion of Ukraine is now "the expectation", according to Simon Coveney. 

It comes as Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders on Sunday. There are increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion.

The exercises, originally set to end on Sunday, brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to neighbouring Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north. 

The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Mr Coveney, who is at the Munich Security Conference with other world leaders, said the mood there is "very pessimistic".

"I think that the view of virtually everyone I've met is that some form of invasion of Ukraine is now the expectation rather than a possibility," he told Newstalk. 

Mr Coveney said there are "clear commitments" to continue to pursue diplomatic solutions but the intelligence "is giving a very negative outlook".

He said that any potential invasion could occur as early as the next few days.

Mr Coveney said there was an obligation to continue seeking diplomatic solutions and he called on Russia to take credible moves on the ground to de-escalate.

"But unfortunately the opposite is happening," the Minister for Defence stated. 

Mr Coveney cited the fact that the Belarusian defence ministry confirmed that Russian troops were to stay in the country indefinitely as an example.

'Sense of foreboding'

However, Mr Coveney added that he still believes there is potential for diplomatic intervention and de-escalation.

"There is a real sense of foreboding that things are moving in the wrong direction rather than into the direction of de-escalation for now.

"The response to that has to be for us to continue to try [with diplomatic intervention]."

Mr Coveney said that war would cause huge changes across Europe.

"Not only would this mean an extraordinary loss of life in Ukraine, for both Russian and Ukrainian citizens, but it would also fundamentally change relationships in Europe between east and west, and nobody wins in that scenario."

He said "nobody wins" in that scenario and should an invasion happen, "severe sanctions would follow and then a response to those sanctions from Russia and everybody loses".

Earlier, British Prime Minster Boris Johnson admitted that hard-hitting financial sanctions may not be enough to prevent Russian president Vladimir Putin from signing off an invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Johnson warned that a Russian incursion across the border into Ukraine “could be the biggest war in Europe” since the Second World War, with casualties on both sides.

When asked about Irish families who are pursuing surrogacy services in Ukraine, Mr Coveney said the embassy staff in Kiev and the consular team in Dublin have been working through the night.

He said there are a number of families involved and they are all safe.

Mr Coveney added that the advice is to not travel to Ukraine but the Department will work individually with families to try and find solution.

- additional reporting from PA and Associated Press