Fine Gael loss a wake-up call for leader Varadkar

Minister for Justice Helen McEntee with her baby Michael Shane, meeting with Fine Gael candidate Cllr James Geoghegan with his son Harry, one.

With an hour to go in polling on Thursday night, the official Fine Gael Twitter account shared a post complete with sirens urging members "not to let Sinn Féin in".

It warned of higher than expected turnout in "Sinn Féin areas" and pushed supporters in Dublin Bay South to get to their polling stations.

As a move to get out voters, it came so late in the day that its impact would have been negligible, but the reaction to it was not. 

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald called it "daft" and Twitter users blasted it as crass and classless.

Whether it was any of those things likely depends on your political persuasion, but what the message was was panicked. 

Intentionally or not, Fine Gael had come across as rattled by Sinn Féin's ability to turn out its core vote with 70 minutes left in a two-month campaign.

It did not smack of a campaign confident that it was going to wake up on Friday and return a newly-minted TD to the Dáil.

Make no mistake, the Fine Gael vote was not a disaster by any stretch. James Geoghegan is a popular local councillor two years into his role and managed to take 26% of first-preferences. 

He will be a Fine Gael TD for Dublin Bay South if he so wishes in the coming years.

But the immediacy of by-elections creates a zero-sum proposition. It's all well and good having a strong poll four years out from the next general election, but people want to know did you win or lose. 

And in this race, Fine Gael lost. A seat previously held by a young, high-profile ally of the leader is now held by the opposition.

While Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and director of elections and Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris pointed to the positives, they will know that this was a campaign at which they threw everything — ministers and money, resources and manpower  — but came up short. 

For Mr Varadkar, the narrative now becomes his ability to win elections. Since he was named Fine Gael leader, he has lost five by-elections and 12 seats in a general. 

He will rightfully point out that wins for sitting governments in by-elections are like hen's teeth.

However, having put every last bit of effort to hold the seat, Dublin Bay South, that leafy enclave of Fine Gael, is now without a party representative in the Dáil.