Cork's traffic congestion set to get far worse by 2040, analysis shows

Department of Transport says economic and population growth in Cork City 'will likely generate demand that exceeds infrastructure provision'

In Cork, it estimated the cost of congestion across the metropolitan area in 2022 was €57.5m. This is forecast to rise to €97.2m by 2040. Picture: Larry Cummins

Traffic congestion plaguing Cork motorists is going to get far worse by 2040, despite the long-awaited improvements in public transport, a Department of Transport analysis has warned.

Any relief for weary motorists stuck in their cars during rush hour through the likes of BusConnects , park and ride sites, and a high-quality cycle network across the city will be offset by economic and population growth, meaning the morning and evening scramble to and from work and school will be as frustrating as ever, it found.

The economic cost is set to hit almost €100m by 2040, the department said.

Key infrastructure projects such as BusConnects may only ease congestion “temporarily” as population and economic growth put greater demands on travel infrastructure in the city, it warned.

The department’s strategic research and analysis division published a new paper on the economic cost of congestion in Ireland’s “regional cities”, looking particularly at Cork, Galway and Waterford.

It builds on a previous study of Dublin which projected the economic cost in the capital could increase four-fold to more than €1.5bn by 2040.

In Cork, it estimated that the cost of congestion across the metropolitan area in 2022 was €57.5m. This is forecast to rise to €97.2m by 2040. Even under a lower growth scenario, the cost is expected to hit €75m.

Economic cost is measured primarily due to the time wasted in cars, but there are other indirect costs to congestion, including greenhouse emissions and adverse health impacts, the analysis said.

The Department of Transport’s estimates assume that the key infrastructure elements of the Cork Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy, such as BusConnects, are delivered.

“Delays to the delivery of these projects will postpone the alleviation of congestion,” it said.

However, even delivering on these projects won’t provide a great deal of relief.

The report said: “In the Cork Metropolitan Area, population and economic growth will be likely to generate more demand for commuting trips.

“This results in the growth of congestion costs in the morning and evening peaks over the period as well as overall growth of congestion in this area.

“Deliveries of public transport and road infrastructure could reduce congestion temporarily; however, population and economic growth will likely generate demand that exceeds infrastructure provision.”

While in 2022, heavy traffic congestion was mainly observed in junctions near the city centre, this congestion is likely to spread over the east, west, and north of the city centre in future, it said.

Meanwhile, in Waterford, it suggested that congestion came at a cost of €5.8m in 2022 and is forecast to rise to €22.4m in 2040.

In the Galway Metropolitan Area, the cost of congestion was €35.3m in 2022, but this is expected to rise to €106.9m in 2040. In terms of the cost of congestion per person, the projected cost in Galway is almost triple the amount in Cork at €891 per person by 2040 compared to €309 in Cork.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

In Waterford, the cost per person from congestion is set to rise a staggering 238% by 2040 compared to just 20% in Cork, which the report said is reflective of the wide-ranging investment in public transport in Cork.

“This demonstrates that large-scale investments in sustainable modes can slow down the growth of congestion and that further proactive measures in improving sustainable modes and effective policies to control demand increases should be followed to keep congestion under control,” it said.

“Increased congestion will lead to higher emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions in the regional cities as well. Therefore, tackling congestion is essential to prevent the deterioration of people’s wellbeing and economic productivity in regional cities.”