Speed of climate change could create new tipping points, according to UCC study

University College Cork academic says shocks due to the rapidity of climate change could be as dangerous as the change itself

UCC's Hassan Alkhayuon, co-lead author of the paper, said the progress of climate change is analogous to that of human-made systems, and cites the surge in electricity demand in England during the 1990 World Cup semi-final. Picture: UCC

The speed at which the earth approaches critical levels of climate change could be as dangerous as reaching these levels, a joint Irish and English mathematician-led study has found.

University College Cork and Exeter University mathematicians found disruptively rapid rates of climate change could create new tipping points with humans and ecosystems unable to adapt.

Joint lead author of the paper, Hassan Alkhayuon, UCC School of Mathematical Sciences, said: “The phenomenon of rate-induced tipping is not restricted to climate systems.

“Using mathematical modelling we observe similar effects in ecosystems and human-made systems.”

Paul Gascoigne in tears during England's 1990 World Cup semi-final against West Germany. England's national grid prepared for high demand during the game — but omitted to plan for it going to extra time and penalties. File picture: Joe Tyler

He highlights the near-miss blackout to England’s electricity grid during the 1990 World Cup semi-final as an example.

“When England played West Germany, the national grid was prepared for a surge in demand at full time,” he said. “What they didn’t prepare for was the game going to extra time, then penalties.

“So, when the equivalent of one million kettles were turned on all at once there was a huge surge in demand on the grid and a near miss.

“It wasn’t that the capacity wasn’t there — the problem was that at that moment in time the grid was not prepared for a sudden surge.”

The paper highlights “unprecedented” climate change linked to human activity.

It states: “Systems are able to continually adapt to a moving base state and therefore avoid tipping when external forcing changes sufficiently slowly but fail to adapt to or track a moving base state when external forcing changes faster than some critical rate.”

Professor Sebastian Wieczorek, UCC School of Mathematical Sciences, said: “Rate-induced tipping captures a ubiquitous and potentially dangerous instability — failure to adapt to changing external conditions — and thus requires deeper understanding and recognition by climate policy makers.”

Joint lead author Paul Ritchie, Exeter University Global Systems Institute and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, said the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “fell short of identifying the rate of warming as a key risk factor for climate tipping points”.

He cautioned: “This rate-induced tipping may be of even greater concern because of the unprecedented rates of global warming and heatwave intensity we are currently experiencing.

• The paper, Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems, is published in Earth System Dynamics.