Ireland must boost births and welcome immigrants to sustain economy – NESC

National Economic and Social Council policy analyst Gráinne Collins said Ireland's sharp and sustained fall in births was reflected in two turning points, 'peak baby' in 2010 and 'peak child' in 2024. Picture: iStock

Ireland should welcome migrants to support the economy into the future, thereby avoiding a “vicious circle” where we don’t have enough workers to sustain the State, a new government report has said.

The National Economic and Social Council (NESC), an advisory body to the Taoiseach and Government, said that Ireland is undergoing significant demographic shifts and must adapt soon in what is set to be a “decisive” decade in the country’s future.

“Demographic change is inevitable, but it does not have to be destabilising,” the council’s policy analyst Gráinne Collins said.

“It is a signal to plan ahead to create the country we want to live in. By acting now, we ensure that future generations inherit a social model that is resilient, sustainable, and genuinely inclusive.”

Fall in childbirths

Ms Collins said that Ireland has already passed two significant turning points, “peak baby” in 2010 and “peak child” in 2024, which reflects a sharp and sustained fall in births.

This fall means that Ireland’s population will peak in around three decades’ time, bringing with it an ageing population and puts us at risk of the “vicious cycle” where we don’t have enough workers and tax revenue to support this population.

To combat these risks, we should shift to a “virtuous cycle” by supporting birth rates, increasing participation in the labour force, and reconfiguring the health system to support early intervention and community interventions.

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It also calls for fiscal prudence to make sure the country has enough funds to meet the demands it will face in the future. The report said: 

“Building resilience means developing a stronger framework for long-term budgeting, investing in productive infrastructure, and managing public finances in a way that smooths expenditure pressures over time.

Fiscal preparation is not only about saving more, but also about spending wisely, directing resources toward prevention, innovation, and policies that reduce future liabilities. 

It said that fertility “may be stabilised” through policies that support the creation of families such as affordable childcare and housing, sufficient parental leave, and income and welfare policies that “de-risk family formation”.

The report called migration a “key lever” to replenish the workforce as our population ages but the success of this depends on housing, services, and inclusive integration policies. It said: 

“Migration can only ever be a complement to, but cannot substitute for, domestic fertility or workforce participation strategies,” it said.

Pressure will therefore be on Government to lead the way and present a vision of Ireland as a thriving, inclusive, and sustainable society, according to the report.

Ms Collins said that the country too often looks at population change in the “rear-view mirror” and that we need to become better at modelling and anticipating changes to ensure we’re prepared for them.

Her colleague, NESC director Larry O’Connell added: “Long-term planning is therefore essential as we confront these profound shifts.”