Demand for GP visits to grow 30% in next 15 years, with extra 1,200 doctors needed, report finds

The ESRI estimated GP consultations would grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040,

Demand for GP visits is expected to increase by as much as 30% in the next 15 years, with an extra 1,200 doctors needed to keep pace, new research has found.

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said healthcare reforms may reduce the pressure on hospital services in the medium term, but this will “inevitably increase the demand for general practice service in the coming years”.

“However, the lack of nationally representative and accessible data on general practice presents a major challenge for effective capacity planning,” its report said.

“It remains unclear whether current measures will be sufficient to meet future demand.” 

Funded by the Department of Health, the ESRI was asked to research a range of scenarios around population growth and ageing, the pace of health ageing and policy reforms, and the impact all that would have on demand for general practitioners and general practice nurses.

It found rising demand for GP services in the future would be largely driven by population growth and, to a lesser extent, the ageing population.

Ireland’s population is expected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 million and 6.3 million by 2040.

Meanwhile, the share of the population under 25 is expected to fall, while the population over 50 will increase. While everyone uses GP services, their utilisation tends to increase with age.

The ESRI estimated GP consultations would grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040, which is a rise of between 23% and 30%.

This will mean between 943 and 1,211 new GPs will be needed across Ireland by 2040, relative to a headcount of 3,928 in 2023.

Furthermore, an extra 761 to 868 general practice nurses will be needed.

Dr Sheelagh Connolly, lead author of the report and associate research professor at the ESRI, said the findings offer policymakers “evidence on the scale of workforce expansion needed to meet future demand”.

She highlighted Sláintecare reforms as reorientating care towards primary and healthcare settings, such as extending GP visit cards to children under eight, but with the consequence of increasing demand on such services.

“There is already some evidence to suggest that general practice is struggling to meet existing demand,” the report said.

“The recent increase in training places for GPs — from 258 in 2022, to 285 in 2023 and 350 in 2024 — should help increase the number of GPs in the coming years.” 

However, it added the number of GPs would need to be regularly monitored over time to ensure supply keeps pace.

Reacting to the research, minister for health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said it provided “valuable insights” into the demand for care from general practice for our growing and ageing population.

“It will inform the Government's efforts to collaborate with general practice to enhance its capacity as a core component of healthcare," she added.