Retirements could drop garda numbers to 12,000 in the next two years, ASGI warns

Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan said that while he hopes garda numbers would not drop to these levels, he is 'not a fortune teller'. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

Garda numbers could plummet to as low as 12,000 over the next two years, causing major challenges for policing, the Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors (ASGI) warned.

The drop from the current number of some 14,000 would dramatically reduce the number of gardaí available to patrol the streets and investigate crime.

“It wouldn't be dramatic to say that we could be going down towards 13,000, 12,000 in the next year or two,” AGSI general secretary Ronan Clogher said.

“We had 141 new recruits graduate on March 2. We have lost 109 through retirements and resignations in quarter one 2025. We see it [garda numbers] stabilizing around 14,000, we don't see any increase by the end of the next year.” 

Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan said that while he hopes garda numbers would not drop to these levels, he is “not a fortune teller”.

A glut of retirements are due in the coming years, with some 2,000 gardaí reaching eligibility for retirement.

Gardaí can retire on full pension after 30 years of service.

At the AGSI’s annual conference in Killarney, Mr Clogher said gardaí are not being listened to by garda management or the minister.

But gardaí themselves can “see a solution".

“Everyone is in agreement that we are going to lose huge numbers,” Mr Clogher said.

“The problem wasn't acknowledged until about nine or ten months ago when the Department came out and said ‘yes we have a problem with recruitment’. What have they done about it?

They’ve had a few talking gestures, tinkered around the edges. We need serious changes to address recruitment.

Making changes such as providing medical insurance and pension reforms, as are available in the private sector, could help, he said.

Social media is also now putting people off joining the gardaí as people can shove cameras in their faces every time they leave the station.

“Our young people in this country, they constantly see guards being abused on social media, being harassed," Mr Clogher said.

“Guards can't do their job. They're followed by citizen journalists when they leave Garda stations, phones constantly in their face.”

Mr Clogher also described current garda recruitment targets as “pie in the sky”.

Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan said the government has committed to recruiting 5,000 gardaí over the next five year term.

“It's challenging, it's ambitious but I think we need to set it as our agenda, our objective,” he said.

“The money is being allocated for it so I'm not going to lessen my ambition in respect of that.

Nobody can predict what's going to happen in the future. We have a very competitive work environment. Obviously people are attracted to other jobs as well.

A starting salary of €40,000 is “not a bad salary,” he said.

But he said he is conscious of the cost of accommodation and the financial pressures it places on people.

But he said he did not believe garda starting salaries could be separated out from all other public servants and as it would create “industrial relations chaos”.

“So there has to be a coherent approach across the board for public sector pay.”