Breast cancer diagnoses and deaths to surge by 2050, scientists say

Factors that increase the risk of breast cancer include getting older, inherited faulty genes and a family history of the disease.

Breast cancer diagnoses and deaths are projected to surge worldwide by 2050, the World Health Organization’s cancer agency has said.

Globally, one in 20 women will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, with cases up 38% and deaths up 68% over the next 25 years, according to an analysis by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

There will be 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths a year worldwide by 2050 if current trends continue, the study found. 

The findings were published in the journal Nature Medicine.

“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” said the IARC scientist Dr Joanne Kim, one of the authors of the report.

Countries can mitigate or reverse these trends by adopting primary prevention policies … and by investing in early detection and treatment.

The projected increase in cases worldwide is probably due to a mix of factors, including a growing and ageing global population, improvements in detection and diagnosis, and a higher prevalence of known risk factors for the disease.

Risk factors

Factors that increase the risk of breast cancer include getting older, inherited faulty genes and a family history of the disease.

Globally, most breast cancer cases and deaths occur in women aged 50 and above, who account for 71% of new cases and 79% of deaths, the IARC said.

About a quarter of breast cancer cases can be prevented, the study’s authors said, for example by reducing alcohol intake, maintaining a healthy weight and becoming more active.

Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer in women worldwide, but its burden is not evenly distributed. 

The IARC said diagnosis rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, followed by North America and Northern Europe, and lowest in Asia and Africa. However, death rates were highest in Melanesia and Polynesia, and in West Africa.

Over the last decade, incidence rates grew by 1% to 5% a year in 27 of 50 countries studied, the IARC said. Importantly, breast cancer mortality rates decreased in 29 of 46 countries analysed.

Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, the deputy head of the IARC’s cancer surveillance branch, said: “Continued progress in early diagnosis and improved access to treatment are essential to address the global gap in breast cancer and ensure that the goal of reducing suffering and death from breast cancer is achieved by all countries worldwide.”

Alcohol's link to cancer

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization released findings about an “alarming” lack of awareness about alcohol’s link to cancer across Europe.

The organisation called for clear and prominent tobacco-style warnings in the region with the world’s heaviest drinkers.

The global health agency has repeatedly warned alcohol causes cancer and has backed clear labelling but has never before been as prescriptive in its call for new government regulations.

Alcohol causes 800,000 deaths across Europe each year, but just a fraction of the population is aware of the risks, the WHO’s Europe office said.

Its study found just 15% of respondents knew alcohol could cause breast cancer and only 39% were aware of its link to colon cancer.

The Guardian