Many EU nations in 'full war preparation mode', raising pressure on Irish neutrality
A French Leclerc battle tank firing during a Nato exercise at a training range in Smardan, eastern Romania. Defence Minister Simon Harris has been briefed that EU countries are now in 'full war preparation mode'. Picture: Vadim Ghirda/AP
Irish officials have told the Defence Minister, Tánaiste Simon Harris, that many of Ireland’s EU partners are in “full war preparation mode”.
A high-level briefing document for the new minister said European defence was increasingly seen as “vital” to the EU’s very security.
The ministerial brief from the Department of Defence said “strengthening cyber defence capabilities” and “securing critical infrastructure” were key matters on the EU agenda.
The document said that up until now, Ireland’s position, and that of other countries, of military neutrality, had been accepted, but that the changing geopolitical climate and the decision of previously neutral states such as Sweden and Finland to join Nato would likely result in a “lower tolerance or understanding” of this position into the future.
The briefing said defence and security are now at the top of the EU agenda.
"In this current geopolitical climate, European defence is therefore increasingly viewed as vital to Europe’s existential security, with many member states calling for a strategic paradigm shift in the EU’s defence approach and priorities,” it said.
"Many of our EU partners, particularly the Nordics and the Baltics, are in full war preparation mode, and this is naturally reflected in part by the EU, albeit caveated by any developments in this regard needing to respect the nature of the EU treaties and the security and defence interests of all member states.”
It said Poland, with its 4.6% GDP spend on defence, the highest of all Nato and EU members, holds the presidency of the European Council for the first half of 2025.
“It has identified an explicit focus on European security during its term,” the brief said.
“This, when viewed with the upcoming EU White Paper on Defence [March 2025], and allied to the strategies on readiness and internal security, will further move the dial on defence and security matters at EU level.
"It will require early, sustained and detailed engagement from Ireland, to ensure that our national position remains protected, while we remain a constructive member of the EU."
Figures published last month in the showed that Ireland remains stuck at the bottom of the EU table for defence spending.
Ireland allocates about half the amount — calculated as a percentage of national wealth or GDP — as neutral Malta and less than a quarter of the budget of fellow neutral state Austria.
Figures produced by the European Defence Agency said Ireland’s spend on defence in 2023 was 0.2% of GDP, compared to Malta at 0.4%, Austria at 0.9%, and an EU average of 1.6%.
The briefing document said Ireland has always maintained a policy of military neutrality, but added: “At the same time, however, it has always been acknowledged that no state acting alone can address the entirety of existing and emerging security challenges.”
The briefing spells out for the Tánaiste the grim picture of the strength of the Defence Forces:
- Overall numbers dropped from 8,568 in 2020, to 7,550 in 2023, and stabilising in 2024 (7,557);
- Army strength fell from 6,920 in 2020, to 6,136 in 2023 and to 6,099 in 2024;
- Air Corps dropped from 746 in 2020, to 689 in 2023, but rising to 739 in 2024;
- Naval Service strength fell from 902 in 2020 to 725 in 2023 and to 719 in 2024.
It said the Defence Forces was supposed to have an established strength of 9,739 and that the Commission on Defence Forces’ second of three recommendations, adopted by the Government, envisages an established figure of 11,500 by 2028.
It said inductions (768) did exceed discharges (674) in 2024, breaking the trend of recent years.
The briefing flags pressures Ireland will face when it assumes the presidency of the EU in the second half of 2026, when negotiations take place on the next EU budget, with a very likely “considerable focus” on defence.
