Difficult to see how government will reach sales target for electric vehicles, says State oil agency

In its report, NORA said the EU’s decision in March to 'soften' its position on the total ban on sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) post 2035 coupled with the cut in Government grants for electric vehicles announced in 2023 will put 'downward pressure on the switch to electric vehicles'. Photo: John Keeble/Getty Images

Reaching a target of 100,000 electric vehicles sold in Ireland a year will take “some time to be achieved”, a State agency has said, as it warned downward pressure had been put on the switch to EVs.

In its strategic plan through to 2029, the National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA) said that the “slow” implementation of improvements in public transport and the limited change in consumer behaviour will continue contributing to the demand for oil in the transport sector going forward.

“This stagnation in EV penetration makes it difficult to see how the government’s target of 936k electric vehicles by 2030 is going to be delivered,” it said.

It said that given the current number of EVs in the Irish carpool is estimated at 110,000, this would require over 100,000 per year to be purchased between now and 2030 and assumes that none of the existing stock falls out of the carpool.

It follows on from full-year data from the Central Statistics Office showing that sales of electric cars fell from 22,493 in 2023 to 17,191 in 2024, a drop of 23.5%.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

Speaking to the Irish Examiner at Christmas time, industry experts said that confidence in EVs had “fallen off a cliff” and that it would be vitally important for the next Government to restore confidence in such vehicles.

In the Programme for Government, the new coalition has pledged to examine the introduction of additional incentives with a view to increasing take-up of EVs and replacing older, polluting vehicles. It also said it would review customs duties on second-hand EV imports to make them more affordable.

In its report, NORA said the EU’s decision in March to “soften” its position on the total ban on sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) post 2035 coupled with the cut in Government grants for electric vehicles announced in 2023 will put “downward pressure on the switch to electric vehicles”.

“The number of new, privately owned, first-time-registered EVs purchased in the last rolling 12-month period was just under 54k,” it said.

“This is the total number of all electric vehicles. Excluding non-plug-in electric vehicles, which are simply more efficient internal combustion engine vehicles, the number of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles registered over the last 12 months was just under 30k. 

Getting to an annualised run rate of 100k will take some time to be achieved. 

Furthermore, NORA’s report suggested that oil demand is forecast to grow into 2025 and is not expected to level off “until close to the end of the decade”.

“The Irish economy is expected to continue to grow over the coming years, and this, coupled with an expected increase in Ireland’s population, will lead to an increased demand for energy which, in the short term, will lead to an increased demand for oil,” it added.