Election 2024: Risk of interference and disinformation by hostile states 'medium'

The threat assessment report said hostile states and groups have shown a “sustained interest in destabilising and manipulating electoral processes” in Western democracies.
The State’s cybersecurity agency has said there is an overall “medium” threat of cyberattacks on candidates and political parties during the election campaign — including a “high” risk of “hack and leak” incidents.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) also said the risk of interference and disinformation by hostile states was “medium”.
It said that what happens in Ireland is of interest to many countries because of its geographical location in Europe, the level of foreign investment, key export markets, and its position as a “data centre hub”.
The centre has published a
report and has also updated its guidance on cybersecurity for political organisations and election candidates.It has a five-stage threat system: “None”, “low”; “medium” (meaning a general threat exists and a cyber attack is possible); “high” (cyber attack is likely) and “very high” (attack is highly likely).
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NCSC director Richard Browne told the
that efforts to hack into computers of politicians, political parties, and public bodies and leak damaging information to the media was designed to “manipulate” public debate and create “fear and panic” among people.He also cautioned that there was a case in the recent French election of documents being altered and falsified before being leaked.
Mr Browne stressed that his team is “ready” for any such incidents, adding that they have further strengthened their monitoring, analytical, and response teams since the local and European elections in June.
The threat assessment report said hostile states and groups have shown a “sustained interest in destabilising and manipulating electoral processes” in Western democracies
for their own geopolitical aims and added that Ireland is “not immune” to this threat.
According to the report:
- Based on global trends and incidents observed in Ireland, NCSC assess the risk of cyber-enabled attacks targeting election candidates and political organisations, including ‘hack and leak’ operations, to be “medium”;
- NCSC assess the risk of cyberattacks during the election cycle to be “medium”. While a ‘hacktivist’ event during the voting period is “likely” (or “high”), the potential impact is assessed as low;
- NCSC assess the risk of a foreign information manipulation and interference campaign targeting societal coherence and democratic processes to be “medium”.
It said that last month, the US intelligence community publicly assessed that Russia and Iran were attempting to influence the US presidential campaign, with China focused on congressional elections.
The report said that European Parliament MEPs adopted a resolution condemning Russia’s escalating malicious activities, interference and hybrid operations ahead of Moldovan elections.
The report said State-aligned actors used cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to interfere with elections in the west.
“The outcome of any political event will be of interest to other countries, making it essential to protect the resilience of the electoral process and infrastructure.”
The report said candidates and political parties are typically more often targets of cyber attacks than election infrastructure and that potential targets include social media accounts and emails.
It said AI-generated audio, video, and image deepfakes have been used across the world to target political figures and are designed to “manipulate them into revealing sensitive information”.
The report also said that low cost and unsophisticated cyber attacks, such as denial of service, and website defacement, are used to catch attention and “undermine confidence in government or democratic processes”.
It said that while voting in Ireland is paper based, electoral processes — such as voter registration, vote compilations and transmission — could be a target.
On disinformation by hostile states, it said: “While the impact of foreign information manipulation and interference in Ireland has been low there are ongoing efforts by State-backed actors to spread disinformation.”