Climate change could cause up to 1,400 additional deaths a year in Ireland, study finds

The largest increases in hospitalisations on hot days were seen for circulatory, respiratory, and infectious diseases, and among younger people aged up to 14.

Climate change could cause up to 1,400 additional deaths a year in Ireland by the end of this century in a worst-case scenario, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has said.

In a new study looking at the impact of climate change on hospital services, the ESRI found higher temperatures increase the number of emergency in-patient hospital admissions.

Given that even the most optimistic scenario suggests more than 200 additional deaths a year from climate change in the future, the ESRI said the health benefits of reducing the impacts of climate change could be substantial.

“Even in moderate climates such as Ireland, we find evidence that higher temperatures increase hospitalisation rates significantly,” ESRI associate professor Dr Anne Nolan said.

“These results emphasise the need for policymakers in moderate climate countries, including Ireland, to implement adaptive measures and increase capacity to accommodate the higher hospital demand from higher temperatures, especially during the summer months.” 

Using data from Met Éireann and on inpatient figures from 2015 to 2019, the ESRI found emergency hospital admissions for temperature-affected diseases were 8.5% higher on days when it was 22C-25C compared to days when it was 10C-13C.

The largest increases in hospitalisations on hot days were seen for circulatory, respiratory, and infectious diseases, and among younger people aged up to 14.

Under the most likely scenario, where temperatures rise between 1C and 1.6C, there would be a 9.4% annual increase in emergency in-patient hospitalisations for health conditions linked to the temperature for the period 2021-2040. 

The increase in the next period after that would 12.2%.

The worst-case scenario, which the ESRI said would arise from greenhouse gas emissions continuing to grow unmitigated and would be an “extreme interpretation of no climate action”, would see annual deaths due to climate change of about 1,400.

In the most likely scenario, however, this drops to 483 heat-attributable deaths a year.

Reacting to the report, health charities said the findings were stark and showed the need for bold action from the Government to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

Irish Cancer Society chief executive Averil Power said it showed we are in a “race against time” to put proper measures in place to cut climate change and protect Ireland’s health system into the future.

Irish Heart Foundation chief executive Emma Balmaine added: “Worryingly, the most vulnerable in our society, including those with cardiovascular disease and children, will be most impacted by rising temperatures.

“To protect public health, it is vital that we invest in our healthcare system to ensure its resiliency and adopt immediate measures to transition to a more environmentally sustainable society.”

Globally, temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.

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