Covid caused 1,100 excess deaths in Ireland during 2020 and 2021

The Society of Actuaries in Ireland report follows 'contradictory' findings from different bodies on excess deaths — the difference between observed and expected deaths — during the pandemic years. iStock

A new analysis of covid-19 in Ireland during 2020 and 2021 indicates 1,100 excess deaths in those years, the Society of Actuaries in Ireland has said.

This follows earlier publications from different bodies on excess deaths — the difference between observed and expected deaths — during the pandemic years.

The society acknowledges “contradictory” findings in those reports and said there is no single definitive approach.

It said factors influencing the figures can include data-sets used, time periods chosen as benchmarks, or delays in reporting deaths due to the cyberattack on the HSE.

Covid restrictions — such as travel bans and mandatory mask-wearing and social distancing — were a 'potentially significant factor' in the lower number of excess deaths in 2020. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA 

The Society of Actuaries in Ireland used the death rate between 2017 and 2019 as a benchmark to estimate expected deaths between 2020 and 2021 through recent CSO data including 2022 census results.

Then deaths were standardised to the population size and mix of 2021 for analysis.

Excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 

The society found 33,870 deaths for 2020, compared to an annual average of 33,818 over 2017 to 2019, leaving a difference of 52.

For 2021, it found 34,844 deaths in the years studied compared to an annual average of 33,818 during 2017-2019, leaving a difference of 1,026.

This is a combined difference of 1,078.

The report also stated that, between March and December 2020, or the pandemic months only, the excess death rate for people aged over 85 was “significant”. However, deaths among younger people reduced.

Restrictions a 'potentially significant factor' 

The society concluded that “one potentially significant factor” contributing to a lower number of deaths in 2020 compared to 2021 was covid restrictions introduced by the government.

The society represents professional actuaries who use statistical and mathematical techniques to study past events and anticipate future events.

In January, the Department of Health published findings from the OECD indicating no excess deaths between 2020 and 2022 for Ireland.

The Central Statistics Office published data in 2022 indicating 3,533 excess deaths here during 2020-2021.

A covid-19 inquiry/review is expected to be set up shortly with a report potentially due next year.