Greatest threat to European security is a Trump re-election, warns UCC expert
Professor in the Department of Politics Andrew Cottey said that if Mr Trump regains power and decides to pull the US out of Nato, Europe will be in 'unchartered territory'. Picture: Julia Nikhinson/AP
The “biggest uncertainty” for the security of Europe in the face of Russian imperialism is if Donald Trump is re-elected as US President, a leading UCC expert has said.
Professor in the Department of Politics Andrew Cottey said that if Mr Trump regains power and decides to pull the US out of Nato, Europe will be in “unchartered territory”.
In an inaugural lecture in the UCC Futures series, Mr Cottey said he could not see troops from a European country being sent to Ukraine, as floated as a possibility by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Mr Cottey said there was a “very powerful imperative”— in terms of avoiding a wider Russian-European war — to avoid any such a move.
“What the West needs to do is double down on providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself and retain its independence, rather than talking about putting European troops in Ukraine, which is unlikely,” Mr Cottey said.
He said the link between Russia’s “fall into authoritarianism” and the war against Ukraine was “persuasive” and said he could not see a democratic Russia making such a decision.
“This is one man’s war,” Mr Cottey said. “The decision to go to war was his decision”.
Mr Cottey said that president Putin has never accepted the independence of eastern European countries and had described Ukraine as 'not a real country'.
Regarding claims from president Putin that the West or NATO was to blame for the war, he said the “evidence simply does not support that argument”.
He said the rise of populism in Europe did pose an internal threat, with its focus on nationalism and crude majoritarianism.
He said if populist leaders and populist parties remain in power they could “erode democracy”, weaken individual rights and the rule of law, as in Hungary.
He said some populists are also “pro-Russia” and argue that in the name of peace “we have to cut a deal” with Russia at the expense of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Mr Cottey cautioned that it was important not to “overplay” the threat posed by the rise in populism in Europe, saying few were avowedly anti-democratic, that some, like in Italy, “moderated” their policies in power and that few populist leaders advocate leaving the EU.
“Europe is not back in the 1930s and is unlikely to move in that direction”, he said.
The greater threat to European security, he believes, comes from the US.
He said Mr Trump was the first US leader to be openly critical of Nato and that, if re-elected, he decided to pull the US out of the alliance, it would pose major questions for the West and European security in its ability to stand up to Russia and possible threats to the Baltic states.
“If the US withdraws we are in unchartered territory,” he said. “The biggest uncertainty is the US.”
However, he said there was a strong case that being in Nato was in the national interest of the US and cited surveys indicating that two-thirds of US people support active global engagement.
“My guess is that, ultimately, US commitment will endure,” he said.
Mr Cottey said that so far the West and Russia have shown “strategic restraint”, stressing this was not to condone the suffering and destruction imposed on Ukraine.
He said Russia had refrained from attacking western supply routes of military aid to Ukraine and the West, particularly in President Biden, had ruled out deploying armed forces in Ukraine, adding that Biden had said that such a move would “risk World War III”.
He said the US and Russia had maintained diplomatic and military lines of communication.
Mr Cottey said he felt that President Macron’s comments – about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine – was said “more to put Putin on the backfoot”, rather than France or Europe actually sending troops there.
“Will Europe send troops to Ukraine — No,” Mr Cottey said.
Mr Cottey asked what would happen if European troops were sent to Ukraine and were killed in a Russian missile strike or engaged in a fire-fight with Russian soldiers.
He said that, instead, European countries need to continue to support Ukraine but avoid a war between Russia and the West, adding this was “a delicate, but not impossible, task”.
He added: “The West needs a robust deterrence and containment of Russia, while holding the door open for a different relationship with a different Russia in the future.”
Separately, during a session on EU security developments at the Oireachtas Committee on European Affairs, Kenneth McDonagh said small states such as Ireland face challenging times.
Mr McDonagh, Associate Professor of International Relations at DCU, said Ireland needed to take steps to protect its interests and, as a small state, such steps “will likely need to be with partners”.
He said greater integration in EU security and defence initiatives was a potential avenue.
He said Ireland’s location and its central role in relation to communication networks has brought “external focus on our lack of capabilities”.
Mr McDonagh said the continued lack of a National Security Strategy was “regrettable”.
Also speaking at the committee, Professor of International Relations at UCD, Ben Tonra, said European security and defence have been “turned upside down by Russia’s attempt to wipe Ukraine and its people from the map of Europe”.
He said the certainties upon which Europe’s post world order has been built — and even maintained during the Cold War — have been “shredded”.
He said President Putin had a firm belief, based on his reading of history, that Ukraine as a separate country “should not exist”.
Prof Tonra said the prospect of Donald Trump taking the helm in the US, for a second time, and his marked comments in relation to both NATO and the actions of President Putin, has left “European governments scrambling” to respond.
He said that even with the full delivery of Level of Ambition 2 — the second of three investment options laid out by the Commission on Defence in February 2022 — Ireland will still have “very significant” defence and security gaps “most especially in the sea, air and cyber domains”.
He said this opens up the prospect of being viewed by EU partners as a “weak link”.
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