Flu cases expected to peak this week putting significant pressure on hospitals

HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry shared data from last winter showing pressures on hospitals for weeks after virus cases peaked. 

Flu cases are expected to peak in the coming days, with about 800 hospital patients expected each week with this virus alone, the HSE has warned.

These high numbers are expected to cause significant pressures for hospitals for some weeks after the peak. 

Senior medics warned covid-19 cases are also rising, while RSV numbers remain high, although they are dropping now in a briefing for more than 600 staff.

Dr Greg Martin, national clinical lead for health protection surveillance, said: “The expectation from the modelling we’ve done is that influenza will peak either week one or week two of January, so this week or next week.

“The models suggest that at peak there will be about 2,700 cases per week and about 800 hospitalised cases per week.” 

Between mid-December 2023 and next week, they expect 10,000 flu cases and about 2,900 people hospitalised.

A new variant of covid-19 is also circulating, JN.1.

Dr Martin said over two weeks in mid-December, they saw “a 28% increase” in covid-cases, and a “53% increase” in flu cases".

Many of these people came to emergency departments. “Covid-19 went up 96%,” he said. “Influenza went up 72% and RSV went down by 23%.” 

They saw a 7% increase in flu cases admitted to hospitals, but a 2% decrease among covid-cases and a 20% decrease in RSV admissions.

Fall in RSV cases

Overall the outlook is better for RSV, a virus particularly affecting young children, with a 16% decrease in new cases.

However Dr Martin cautioned: “Cases and hospitalised cases both are declining, but it is nevertheless the case that the numbers are still high.” 

HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry shared data from last winter showing pressures on hospitals for weeks after virus cases peaked. 

“The after-effects are considerable,” he warned. “The fact is that the healthcare system remains under significant pressure for a number of weeks after.” 

He referred to 931 patients on trolleys in January then, however, this winter those extremely high numbers are not happening. 

“This year there was a higher state of readiness,” he said.

Dr Eimear Brannigan, clinical lead for HSE Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control, said if nursing homes impose visiting limits this should be discussed with residents and their families. 

"There may be short-term periods where you need to limit, not stop, limit visiting for certain premises,” she said.

She advised vaccination, saying: "There is still time for you to have benefit.”

Dr Branningan also told the HSE staff that mask-wearing could be considered based on the risks they perceive in their units.

“It needs to be based on local risk assessment,” she said, referring to levels of vaccination, ventilation capabilities and infection risk.

She called on visitors to nursing homes to remain away if they have symptoms of any respiratory virus.

She acknowledged short-term limits on visiting may be needed in residential care facilities. 

“And if that is done, it needs to be communicated to the residents, it needs to be communicated to the people who would wish to visit," she said. 

"And it needs to be explained for how long that is going to be, and when that could be reinstated if it’s interrupted for a short time.” 

She added, however: “I would emphasise that if it’s the residents' wish they want to have a visitor, that should be facilitated as much as possible, and risk can be managed and mitigated.”